Recall the last week of March, just as the Tigers were to embark on the 2025 season, and flash forward to now, and it provides definitive proof of baseball’s unpredictability.
It’s not so much the Tigers’ record. They are on pace to win 92 games and lead the American League Central. While it’s better than widely anticipated, it’s not that far outside the box.
It’s how the Tigers have gotten here that's been so unexpected.
Nobody is saying Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a perfect statistic, but it is the best metric available to gauge the overall effectiveness of players. It takes into account the entire skill set, not just often-flawed traditional numbers.
If in March it was revealed that Zach McKinstry would be the Tigers' best position player according to WAR, followed closely by Dillion Dingler, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell there’d been money placed on the Tigers winning 90-plus games.
Or that the Tigers would be 7-17 in games started by Jack Flaherty, that injuries to Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows would render them largely unproductive and that the bullpen would present genuine chaos instead of a fun nickname.
And that Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe would be lost for the season, and Riley Greene would suddenly became a left-handed hitting version of Rob Deer.
Fortunately for the Tigers, the pleasent surprises have outweighed the disappointments. Gleyber Torres, Javy Baez and Casey Mize have tapered off, but they were literally all stars the first 100 games. Dingler and McKinstry have far out-kicked the coverage. Spencer Torkelson is back on a 30-homer pace. Kerry Carpenter still rakes, Wenceel Perez has proven last season wasn’t a fluke, Will Vest has been solid and Colt Keith is underrated.
Then there’s Tarik Skubal. It would have been reasonable to expect some sort of drop-off. His last start aside, there hasn’t been.
The end of this season figures to present a similar scenario.
In March, a majority of fans were unaware Troy Melton existed, and had no thought of Kyle Finnegan, Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack wearing the Old English D. Melton’s breakout is particularly promising given his raw metrics combined with command.
President of baseball operations Scott Harris has been roasted by many on social media and sports talk radio for not doing enough at the trade deadline. The jury, obviously, is still out. But it does appear Finnegan is a much-needed addition to the backend of the bullpen.
Last year, when the Tigers went on their storied 30-11 run, a string of unthinkable heroes emerged. It could happen again. Or there could be serious disappointment.
All we know for certain at this point, is the Tigers have a real good chance.
Their position atop the standings suggests as much. The rest is like a thrill ride minus a safety belt.
Hold on and expect only the unexpected.