The Tigers thought they added a quality arm last last winter in Jose Urena. They added one in Wily Peralta instead. Which poses an important question for next spring: will they bring Wily back?
"He’s clearly establishing himself as somebody that good teams will want," A.J. Hinch said last week, leaving it unknown whether one of those teams could be Detroit. "Coming into the season he wasn’t a guy that was necessarily projected to be a starter. He’s stating his case pretty firmly."
That was the day after Peralta delivered six shutout innings against the first-place Brewers, a few days before he delivered seven shutout innings against the first-place Rays. Peralta signed a minor league deal with the Tigers last winter because they were willing to give him another shot as a starter. 16 starts later, he has an ERA of 3.04.
A list of AL pitchers with at least 15 starts and a better ERA this season than Peralta: All-Star Gerrit Cole, All-Star Kyle Gibson, All-Star Lance Lynn, All-Star Carlos Rodon and Cy Young frontrunner Robbie Ray. That's it. That's the list! In a Tigers rotation teeming with young talent, the lowest ERA belongs to a 32-year-old journeyman who couldn't hack the big leagues in 2020.
Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning are locks for 2022. Beyond that, Al Avila and the Tigers have some holes to fill. Spencer Turnbull is unlikely to pitch again until 2023 due to Tommy John. Matthew Boyd, who's hoping against hope to avoid the same fate, might not pitch again for the Tigers, period. Urena is set to be a free agent after an injury-marred season. Peralta is set to be a free agent after arguably the best season of his career.
"We asked a lot out of him and he delivered," Hinch said Sunday after Peralta pitched the Tigers to a 2-0 win over Tampa.
The same is true of Peralta's season at large. The Tigers were desperate for rotation help in June after losing both Turnbull and Boyd. They summoned Peralta from Toledo and he surrendered one run or fewer in five of his first six starts. In all, Peralta has six starts of no earned runs, nine starts of less than two earned runs and 12 starts -- again, out of 16 -- of less than three earned runs. His FIP (4.89) suggests he's due for regression. His newfound splitter suggests his breakout might be real.
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Peralta didn't throw a splitter in his first eight big-league seasons, over which time he logged a 4.52 ERA. He developed one in 2019 but rarely used it when he flamed out of the Royals' bullpen, then honed it some more when he spent the duration of last season as a free agent. He's a different pitcher with it now. Opponents are hitting .060 this season against Peralta's splitter, which pairs well with a sinker he runs up to 95 mph. His repertoire is a recipe for ground balls, which are a recipe for outs. Peralta has the seventh-highest ground ball rate among AL starters. He also has the highest rate of weak contact of his career.
"He can control contact on the ground quite a bit," said Hinch. "The ball moves, he’s got a nice angle to it, he’s got some pretty decent extension. He’s not going to miss a ton of bats, but he still has some off-speed deep into counts that he can throw when he wants to.
"He throws to really good lanes. That gets you into leverage counts and you start to create contact on the ground and soft contact. When that split’s working it’s a difference-maker for him. I know he likes his slider, too. He’s got a little bit of everything for a gameplan when you’re facing different teams."
The Tigers will have to add a free-agent starter this winter, maybe two. The market will be headlined by names like Scherzer, Verlander and Kershaw, and a potential Cy Young winner in Ray. If the Tigers spend in this stratosphere, Verlander's the obvious fit. They do need experience to complement their youth. So much still hinges on Boyd, who's seeking a second opinion this week on his ailing elbow. Either way, Peralta belongs in the conversation regarding the back of Detroit's rotation. He's been an equally good fit in the team's clubhouse.
"Always smiling, always happy, never has a bad day," said Hinch. "Engaged with all the guys. Just a good guy to be around. He’s largely unnoticeable, which is a compliment. He just goes about his business and prepares himself and is excited for any opportunity that you give him. He’s a joy."
It's been a joy to watch Peralta pitch this season, especially of late. He was cast aside by the big leagues a year ago, dismissed at the age of 31. He's back better than before. He hit a bump in the road in late July, but owns a 2.41 ERA since August. That ranks fifth among AL starters. One more strong outing in September and we'll be talking about Peralta for AL Pitcher of the Month.
"One of the things I’m most impressed with is when things wobbled a bit in the middle of the season for him, he was able to recover and get himself back on track and continue to pitch well," said Hinch. "It’s easy to maybe disregard him as starter or think that he’s only going to be a spot starter. We didn’t even know how we were going to use him when we called him up.
"So he’s earned this opportunity and he should earn the praise. He’s done a really good job of stabilizing our rotation when we’ve needed it the most."
He's also earned a contract -- a major-league contract -- from a good team this winter. The Tigers fancy themselves a good team next season. Hinch hasn't said anything about Peralta's future in Detroit, but Peralta has said all he can say with his arm. It's for the Tigers to say what's next.