There was a time, not long ago, when the MLB Draft received about as much attention in this town as a school board meeting on cable access.
Then the high-flying Tigers cratered like a meteor, and began collecting Top 10 selections like MLB’s version of the Minnesota Timberwolves, including a couple first overall.
Even this season, multiple years down the road of a particularly ugly rebuild even by baseball standards, the MLB Draft is incredibly important for the Tigers.
The Tigers are selecting third overall this summer. What should they do?
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There is a high probability the Tigers are going to select one of the following four players: HS shortstops Jordan Lawler (Dallas Jesuit Prep), Brady House (Winder-Barrow High School, GA) and Marcelo Mayer (Eastlake High School, Chula Vista, CA), or Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker.
Lawler is a legitimate five-tool talent at a premier position with a notably solid makeup beyond his age. If Lawler is there, it’s an obvious pick for the Tigers. It’s extremely unlikely he will be, though.
It’s why you keep hearing the Tigers have been in so much to see House and Mayer this spring. House has tremendous power potential, but has far less than average speed for an MLB shortstop. He has an exceptional arm, good hands and projects ultimately as a third baseman.
Mayer is the lone left-handed hitter in the trio and it’s difficult not to be impressed. Mayer is very fluid, both in the field and at the plate, which is accented by his height (6'3). He is an average runner, however. His likely MLB position might be second base.
These players are all advanced, and project as probable MLB regulars by 22 years old.
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Rocker is a much more well-known commodity. He is massive (6'4, 255 lbs). He touches 97 mph and is consistently 95. He flat-lines his fastball despite a high arm angle, an indicator of a high spin rate. His slider is already a plus pitch. His changeup is not. Rocker’s motion is interesting. It is really quick, even though he has a relatively high leg kick. Rocker also pitches in a rapid-fire fashion. All around, a fabulous prospect.
Most of the early attention this year focused on fellow Vanderbilt pitcher Jack Leiter. He was posting eye-popping numbers early this season. I stated then if his name wasn’t Leiter (his father is former All-Star Al Leiter) and he wasn’t at a high-profile program like Vandy, he wouldn’t have received nearly the same hype. He is a 6-foot right-hander and, fairly or unfairly, it immediately drops his stock in the eyes of scouts. Leiter throws hard, but he isn’t throwing consistently in the high 90s. He was lit up in recent starts and missed last weekend with an injury. Look for Leiter to slide down. His projected upside does not match that of Rocker.
Ultimately, I see the Tigers’ pick coming down to House or Mayer.
And if anybody is wondering who the Tigers might have at No. 1 overall in 2022, there is a reputed generational talent on the horizon: Florida high school outfielder Elijah Green. He ran a 6.2 60-yard dash last summer, which is nearly world-class speed. He throws 93 mph from the outfield. At 6'3, 215 lbs., his power potential could be off the charts as he fills out.