Tarik Skubal's night began with a blip. It ended with a handshake from A.J. Hinch and a hug from Miguel Cabrera, both of them grateful to call Skubal a teammate. The Tigers are slowly improving and Skubal is rocketing into the discussion of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball.
In a season full of gems, this was his shiniest yet. After grinding through a jam in the first, Skubal left the mound in the seventh having limited the Twins to two hits and one walk with six strikeouts in a 5-0 win for the Tigers. It was his sixth start this season of at least five innings, five strikeouts and zero earned runs, most in the majors.
"We’ve expected Tarik to take a step forward, and he did that last year," said Hinch. "Challenged him to take another step forward, and he’s in the process of doing that now. This is the Tarik Skubal that we’ve been dreaming of for certainly the time that I’ve been here, but before I got here as they developed him in the minors. It's good to see him pitch confidently and continue to take down innings and pitch in wins. He’s been dominant."
How dominant? How bout this? Through 10 starts in the 2012 season, the reigning AL Cy Young and AL MVP had a 2.15 ERA. Through 10 starts this season, Skubal has a 2.15 ERA. He is pitching like peak Justin Verlander, appointment viewing whenever he takes the mound. He is pitching, quite simply, like an ace.
"He's pitching as well as anyone in the league," Hinch said Thursday on the Stoney & Jansen Show. "So call it whatever you want. His maturation is a great story. It’s also a great (reminder) for all of us that guys have to break in at this level. Think about whatever you thought of Tarik Skubal when he first broke in a couple years ago, last year he was a little erratic, and now he’s settling in.
"He’s developing into a guy we expect to win every time. You want to call him an ace, great. I don’t really care to label him, but I love when he pitches."
By bWAR, the two best seasons of Verlander's career were 2011-12. His numbers over that stretch:
- 2.52 ERA
- 0.98 WHIP
- .205 BAA
- 6.7 H/9
- 2.2 BB/9
- 9.0 K/9
And Skubal's numbers this season:
- 2.15 ERA
- 0.95 WHIP
- .215 BAA
- 7.1 H/9
- 1.5 BB/9
- 9.4 K/9
No, 10 starts does not make a season, let alone two. Verlander had that many complete games from 2011-12, which is one of several reasons the 39-year-old is headed to the Hall of Fame. Skubal, 25, is headed back to work.
"He was good," Hinch said Wednesday, "and he can get better."
Indeed, Skubal didn't have his best stuff early on. He needed 25 pitches to get through the first as he searched for his slider. The Twins were toast once he found it. He wound up getting strikeouts with all five of his pitches, from 97 mph sinkers to 77 mph knucklecurves. And everything in between.
Not that Skubal was satisfied himself. Almost as soon as he left the game, he was in the ear of pitching coach Chris Fetter in the dugout, gesticulating as he spoke, talking about the "need to dial in from a consistency standpoint each and every pitch," he said. Like Verlander, he's also a perfectionist.
"I felt like I threw a lot of pitches where I wasn't trying to go tonight and I got away with some," Skubal said. "I just think being able to execute each pitch consecutively is going to be better for me. I need to consistently throw more quality strikes with where I want to go with the fastball."
Even without his best slider, or pinpoint fastball command, Skubal is hard to square up. That's the thing about having five pitches. When each one is filthy, three or four will suffice. His filthiest this season has been the changeup, as it was again on Wednesday. It was a pitch he almost abandoned last season for a splitter, until the results -- and the Tigers coaching staff -- made him think twice. This season, batters are hitting .185 against Skubal's changeup with a 45 percent whiff rate that's about double the MLB average.
"Personally I’m glad the split has been retired and we’re going with the changeup," said Hinch. "He’s got great feel with it. It’s allowed him to get his hand in the right spot and finish his pitches better. Fet (and assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves) have done wonders with his sequencing and with his dominant stuff, but he’s the guy doing it and he’s the guy who’s open to it. It’s completely turned him in the direction of dominance."
The next stage of dominance will take Skubal deeper into games. Verlander knows a thing or two about that. He went at least eight innings in six of his first 10 starts in 2012 -- and 29 (!!) times total from 2011-12. Skubal has yet to pitch past the seventh in his career, partly due to innings limits in his first two seasons, partly because starters aren't asked the carry the load they used to. But Hinch has been stretching him out of late, including Wednesday when he sent him back out for the seventh with 96 pitches to his name. It took Skubal just seven more to retire the side.
"It’s only noticeable because of where the industry has gone with starting pitching," said Hinch. "I mean, this is what a real guy does."
Skubal is a real guy for the Tigers. He is a rock for their rotation. He may have been the No. 3 starter when the season began, but he is becoming their ace. If Verlander was Must-See J.V., Skubal is the hottest ticket in town, a star in the ballpark a fastball from Broadway.
"We’re developing a really good pitcher," said Hinch. "His mentality is in a good place, his execution is in a good place, his production has been elite. It’s fun to watch."
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