The Padres have the No. 1 farm system in all of Major League Baseball. The Padres have the No. 1 farm system in all of Major League Baseball. The Padres have the No. 1 farm system in all of Major League Baseball.
You say it enough to youself, you begin to believe it. In fact, you don't even have to believe it. Because everyone around Major League Baseball will confirm it for you. The "Hot Talent Lava." The young wave-after-wave of players that the Padres have coming to the big leagues. A talent system so rich, the Padres can't help but to soon be major contenders to win a World Series.
Oh. And they tell you something else, too. Be patient. Be patient. Be Patient. So you are, because you believe all of it's going to come true. Someday. Sooner rather than later.
But here's the problem: the Padres aren't even close to being the only team in the big leagues that has talent flowing into their system. And there's the rub. Just because the Padres rank No. 1 on every list, every website, every poll in and around baseball doesn't mean that someday they're going to be No. 1.
Nico Hoerner got me thinking about this the other night, when he debuted at Petco Park for Chicago and Cubs fans were chanting "M.V.P.! M.V.P.!....." after the kid had only taken four Major League at-bats. In those four trips to the plate, the baby-faced shortstop had singled, reached on a fielder's choice and scored with some heads-up base running on a wild pitch, tripled in two runs, and then singled in two more. He was the first Cub in 68 years and only the second Cub ever to have achieved all of these things in his first game. But just who was Nico Hoerner? Surely he must have been one of the Cubs' top "Hot Talent Lava" prospects, right?
Not so fast. Hoerner was in fact only the Cubs' Double-A shortstop, who was sitting at home last weekend because his team's season was over. He was waiting to get the call to make his winter trip to the Arizona Instructional League. Instead, he got a call saying the big club needed him, and needed him immediately. All-Star shortstop Javier Baez was hurt, and his backup Addison Russell was injured as well. So, too, was the Cubs' Triple-A player at that position.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. And with the Cubs in the thick of a pennant race, it was going to be up to Hoerner to fill-in -- at least for the time being. He filled-in all right. Not only did he get three hits and four RBI's, but he also made a highlight-reel defensive play early in the game, grabbing a ground ball up the middle, whirling 360-degrees, and throwing out the runner at first base by a half-step.
Yep. Their Double-A shortstop did all that. Finished with five hits in the series, as a matter of fact. So apparently, the Padres aren't the only ones with a deep farm system. Ugh.
Now, we could talk about just how good the Padres' system is in the first place. Fernando Tatis, Jr. is certainly a big part of the "Lava," and so is pitcher Chris Paddack. Andres Munoz, Cal Quantrill, and even Luis Urias have had their moments. But this isn't about what the Padres may or may not have. This is about the fact that whatever it is they have, they're not alone. The Padres may get much better over the next couple of seasons, but so will a whole bunch of other teams.
In fact, one could make an argument -- a good one -- that the Padres shouldn't even be ranked No. 1 when it comes to talented prospects in their own division. Or have you not noticed Los Angeles Dodgers farmhands like Alex Verdugo, Will Smith, Kyle Garlick, Matt Beaty, Gavin Lux and pitcher Dustin May making a big difference?
The truth is out there somewhere. Everyone might say the Padres' have the brightest future, and perhaps they do. But it's hardly a sure thing.
As we've seen this season, that lava can flow in a whole bunch of different directions.