Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners, and boy, all we’ve done recently is win. We went 2-2 in the first round and 4-1 in the quarterfinals of the playoffs. That makes us 6-3 in the CFP for a whooping 66% win rate. Throw in the conference championship winnings and I might be the hottest college football gambler in the country right now! The most humble gambler, too. Enough pumping my own tires; let’s get right into the bets.
Orange Bowl: Penn State +2 vs. Notre Dame
I expect this game to be a low scoring rock fight just like the Sugar Bowl. Now, you might think that should favor Notre Dame because of the way they want to win football games. Notre Dame wants to beat you up with their ground game, get a lead, and then let their defense suffocate you until the clock runs out. If the expectation is that the game will be low scoring, then Notre Dame should be comfortable in this game. So then why is Big Will Bets picking Penn State to cover?
I think Penn State will cover because of one player: QB Drew Allar. While Allar hasn’t lit the stat sheet on fire in his first two playoff games, he has been extremely efficient. Allar hasn’t turned the ball over, and he has thrown the ball in spots where only his receiver can make a play on the ball. Exactly what you need from a QB in this Penn State offense. Penn State wants a game manager, and that is exactly what Allar is.
In this matchup, I think both teams are evenly matched. Both teams have truly elite defenses. Both teams have a strong OL and stable of running backs that make their run game elite. The true separation in this game is at the QB position. Riley Leonard doesn’t throw the ball well. Drew Allar does. I like Penn State in this one, and while I’m not officially giving it out, I sprinkled some money on their money line as well.
Penn State: +2
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State -6 vs. Texas
I SEE THE LIGHT! Ohio State is the best team in the country and I apologize that it took me so long to see it. To be fair to me, though, the Buckeyes do have a horrible loss to Michigan on their resume that stopped me from believing in them. But after back to back whompings of Tennessee and undefeated Oregon, I have to admit that they are my title favorites.
The Buckeyes are taking on a Texas team that played with their food against ASU and were one play away from being eliminated from the playoffs. Their defense has looked strong, but their offense has looked shaky at best in big games this year. Aside from their playoff game against Clemson, where they ran for almost 300 yards, the Longhorns have not moved the ball well against strong defenses. Unfortunately for them, they are running into the hottest defense in the country right now.
I think the Buckeyes limit the explosive plays from the Longhorns offense and consistently get them off the field. I don’t care how strong this Texas defense is, if they are left on the field too long they will get tired. That was ASU’s gameplan and it almost worked. Ohio State wins and they cover.
Ohio State: -6.
Cotton Bowl: First Half Over 27.5 (+104)
This is strictly an Ohio State play. They would have gone over this number by themselves in the Oregon game and barely needed any help from Tennessee to go over this number in their first round game. Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is in his bag right now, designing plays so well that defenses are getting lost and allowing Jeremiah Smith to run wide open. Smith is hard enough to guard when DBs are in the correct spot, now they have to sift through all of the misdirection and cover Smith. They have no shot. The Buckeyes might cover this number by themselves, but I do expect Sark and Texas to help us out and get one score in the half. I love the first half over.
First Half Over 27.5.
NFL Wildcard: Chargers -3 vs. Texans
This game is very simple to me. The Texans have looked weak against strong teams and they are without two of their top three receivers. Houston has lost 2 of their last three and neither of those losses were close. The Texans are completely limping into the playoffs.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have looked strong against other playoff teams, except for a flukey game against the Buccaneers. They were within a score against the Ravens and both of their losses to the Chiefs. While the Texans are battling the injury bug, LA got healthier when their starting running back J.K. Dobbins returned to the lineup after he missed a month due to injury. Oh, and by the way, the Chargers have won three straight.
The Chargers, while not true Super Bowl contenders, are peaking at the right time, while the Texans seem to be dropping off a cliff. Seems like an easy bet. I expect to see the Chargers in the Divisional Round.
Chargers -3.
NFL Wildcard: Vikings -1.5 vs Rams
Am I a sucker? What the heck is with this line? Yes, the last time we watched the Vikings, they were getting manhandled by the Lions, but they are still 14-3. That’s freaking impressive!
Yes, I know that the Rams beat the Vikings by 10 in the regular season, but that game was on a Thursday night. How many times have we seen a team that we thought was great struggle on a Thursday night to perform because the turnaround was too quick? It happens all the time. This time, the Vikings are going to get a full week to prepare for a Rams team that has limped into the playoffs the last month. Feels like the outcome might be a little different.
Maybe I’m taking crazy pills, but this feels like stealing.
Vikings -1.5.
Grande Finale
We are about to go on the greatest five-day sports stretch of our lives. Playoff games every day. The top teams in the NFL and the top teams in college football battling it out for the ultimate prize. Don’t worry, we are going to be right there with them, trying to earn some extra money on the winning side. Good luck and let’s win some cash!
Author’s Note
So far, I’ve stayed away from props (Tyler Warren ATTD -130), but don’t be shocked if we get into those bets as we get deeper into the playoffs and fewer teams are playing. Seems like a fun add-on to keep it at five bets per article.
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