As the college basketball season gets underway, Wednesday’s slate offers some exciting opportunities for player prop bets. With teams starting to find their footing, I've identified a few key players poised for standout performances based on matchups, offensive roles, and recent history. Auburn's Johni Broome is set to dominate the paint against Vermont, while highly-touted Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey looks to make a statement in his debut. Plus, Minnesota’s Dawson Garcia, one of the top returning scorers in the Big Ten, draws a favorable matchup against Oral Roberts. Let’s dive into my favorite NCAAB player props for November 6.
Auburn C Johni Broome Over 17.5 Points vs. Vermont (+100, BetMGM)
Auburn is implied to score 80 points against Vermont tonight and Broome will be the focal point of Bruce Pearl’s offense once again after averaging 16.5 points per game last season. The 6’10, 240-pound big man was remarkably consistent last season and steps into a great opening night opportunity against Vermont, who allowed UAB big man Yaxel Lendeborg to go off with 22 points and 15 boards in their 67-62 opening win. While the Catamounts play slow (which makes me a little nervous about the overall pace of this game), I don’t see a way for Vermont to slow down one of the best big men in the country in his fifth collegiate season opener. At +100 at BetMGM, I’d love to double my money by putting my faith in what should be the best player within a dominant offense against a far-inferior opponent. There’s a bit of confusion over which players will step up for Auburn with numerous transfers and freshmen factoring in, but the one main constant is Broome’s presence as the team leader.
Rutgers SF Ace Bailey Over 14.5 Points vs. Wagner (-135, DraftKings)
I can’t wait to see this 5-star freshman wing make his college debut tonight for what should be the start of a one-and-done campaign. Drawing comparisons to Kevin Durant, this 6’10 wing was dominant in an exhibition vs. St. John’s, scoring 25 points on a team-high 18 field goal attempts, which should be a sign of what’s to come. In that game against the Red Storm, Bailey and fellow 5-star freshman teammate Dylan Harper combined for 45 of the team’s 85 points in a thrilling up-tempo 91-85 loss. While Wagner isn’t the same caliber of team as St. John’s, they were named the preseason favorite to win the Northeast Conference (NEC) after earning an NCAA Tournament appearance last year, so I’m not sold that this is going to be a blowout win for the Scarlet Knights like the 20.5-point spread suggests. Nonetheless, I think Bailey will see 30-plus minutes in any game script as #25 Rutgers looks to make a statement on opening night.
Minnesota C Dawson Garcia Over 16.5 Points vs. Oral Roberts (-110, BetMGM)
Speaking of a dominant veteran big man, Garcia will enter his fifth college season. This is his third and final season in Minnesota after starting his college career at Marquette and then transferring to North Carolina. Last season, the 6’11 star put up 17.6 points per contest on a career-high 48.6% shooting and shot 80.2% from the free throw line. His 77.6% career free throw mark is very impressive for a guy of his size and he also has the ability to shoot from beyond the three-point line with great touch. The top returning Big Ten scorer from last season should put on a show in the opener against Oral Roberts, who starts the year ranked 294th (of 364) in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rankings. Minnesota is a 16-point favorite and implied to score 81 points. Garcia accounted for 23.3% of his team’s points per game last season and if that carries over at the very minimum, he’d score roughly 19 points in this contest. I think he’ll go over that and into the 20’s.
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