Iowa State (10-2) will take on Arizona State (10-2) in the 2024 Big 12 Conference Championship Game. The Sun Devils are favored by 1.5 points and the over/under is 50.5 points at the time of this writing.
The Big 12 regular season wrapped up in chaos, ending with a four-way tie at the top as Iowa State, Arizona State, Colorado, and BYU all posted 7-2 records in conference play. Since none of these teams faced each other during the season, the tiebreaker came down to records against common opponents and strength of schedule.
All four teams shared four common Big 12 opponents: Kansas, Kansas State, Utah, and Central Florida. Arizona State led the pack with a perfect 4-0 record against those teams, while BYU and Iowa State both went 3-1. Colorado lagged behind at 2-2 with losses to Kansas and Kansas State, knocking them out of contention. Arizona State’s perfect record against those shared opponents earned them the first tiebreaker edge.
That left BYU and Iowa State tied at 3-1, leading the conference to turn to strength of schedule—based on the combined win percentage of Big 12 opponents. Iowa State emerged with the tougher schedule, securing its place ahead of BYU.
Keep reading to see what bet/s I’m targeting for this game with a full explanation.
Best Bet: Cam Skattebo Over 110.5 Rushing Yards
This game is as high-stakes as it gets: the winner punches their ticket to the College Football Playoff, while the loser settles for a bowl game.
Iowa State just wrapped up their first 10-win season in program history, with four of those victories coming by one score. Matt Campbell’s squad knows how to handle close games, and that experience could be crucial in what’s expected to be another nail-biter against Arizona State. On the other side, Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils have defied all expectations this season. Picked to finish last in the Big 12, they’ve consistently found ways to win, proving they’re more than just an underdog story.
Arizona State will be without their top receiver, Jordyan Tyson, who has been a game-changer with 1,101 receiving yards this season. No one else on the roster comes close to matching that production, leaving a massive hole in their passing game. That’s especially problematic against an Iowa State secondary ranked in the top 20 in nearly every pass defense metric.
However, the Cyclones’ Achilles heel is their rush defense, which has been a glaring weakness all season. They rank No. 94 in rushing yards allowed per game (173.6), No. 112 in yards per carry allowed (5.1), and No. 37 in rushing attempts allowed per game (33.9). This sets up perfectly for Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo to take over.
Skattebo has been a workhorse, rushing for at least 147 yards in three of his last four games and scoring seven touchdowns in that span. He’s hit the 100-yard mark in six games this season, averaging an impressive 127.0 yards per game. With at least 20 carries in all but three games, his workload is already heavy—and it’s about to get even heavier with Tyson sidelined. Considering Iowa State has allowed seven different players to rush for 100+ yards this year, Skattebo is in prime position to add his name to that list.
I’m backing Skattebo to dominate on the ground. I’d take the over on his rushing yards prop at 110.5 and sprinkle on him to hit 125+ yards at +260.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
