Every week in college football, the public gravitates toward certain teams, often backing heavy favorites. For Week 10, we’re seeing huge support for Kansas State, Tennessee, and Indiana. These lopsided bets reveal where most public money is flowing, and more importantly, who sportsbooks will be rooting for to cover. With insights from BetMGM’s betting splits, let's dive into the key games, explore why the public is so drawn to these favorites, and see if following the crowd is the best move this weekend.
#17 Kansas State (7-1) -13.5 at Houston (3-5)
Every week, we take a look at the biggest public plays of the weekend in college football, and see where the square bettors are going to lose their money. One of the most successful ways of betting on football is to take whoever the sportsbook needs to cover, on both the side and the total. I have done extremely well this season using this strategy, and am 10-0 over my last 10 college football wagers. Obviously, past success has no dictation on what happens next, but I like our chances.
Our friend John Ewing, who works in data and PR at BetMGM, was kind enough to share this weekend’s betting splits at his sportsbook. Taking a look at this week’s schedule, one team sticks out immediately. Kansas State, which is ranked No. 17 in the country, is traveling to Houston to take on the Cougars. The spread is huge, with the Wildcats laying -13.5 on the road. Everyone and their brother is expecting a total blowout.
Notably, 83% of tickets and 90% of the money is on Kansas State -13.5, the most lopsided spread of the weekend. I can assure you that the sportsbooks are going to want Houston to cover this game.
#7 Tennessee (6-1) -17.5 vs. Kentucky (3-5)
Another team that sticks out right away is Tennessee, who is getting a ton of love this weekend at home against SEC rival Kentucky. The spread for this game is also massive, with the Volunteers laying -17.5 points. The Wildcats have lost three straight games, while Tennessee is 6-1 and winners of two straight games, including defeating Alabama their last time out. I am not shocked at all that the public is hammering them, it was expected.
Once again, let’s take a look at the betting splits from this game at BetMGM. A high 70% of all tickets written on the spread are backing Tennessee -17.5. To make it even more of a liability for the books, 87% of the total cash is also on the Vols to cover the number. These numbers don’t even include moneyline parlays, and I can guarantee that Tennessee is a part of many of them.
BetMGM, along with many other books, are almost certainly going to be huge Kentucky fans in this game.
#13 Indiana (8-0) -8 at Michigan State (4-4)
Hopefully, you are noticing a trend here when it comes to where the public is betting. Normally, it is almost always going to be a favorite, especially large favorites, because they are playing a team that is considered much worse. This rarely works out, although there will be some square weekends where the public does well. You have to throw the dog a bone every now and then to keep them coming back for more.
Indiana is a wagon right now, undefeated at 8-0 and coming off of a 31-17 win over Washington last time out. Not only that, but they are 7-1 ATS this season, so you know the whole world will love them against a 4-4 Michigan State team, even on the road.
Taking a look at the betting splits, it’s the same old story as the other games, very lopsided in favor of the favorite. A high 80% of all spread tickets are Indiana -8, and 82% of the total spread cash is also on them to cover the line. The books would be in euphoria if the Hoosiers finally lost a football game.
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
