When you think of Iowa football, you probably don’t think of offensive firepower or high scoring games. Ask almost anyone and they’d likely tell you they think of defense and unders. They wouldn’t be wrong because the Hawkeyes have had historically good defenses, which is part of the reason they’re 1-9 to the O/U in their last 10 games.
All nine of those unders came last season with the lone over hitting last week in their 2024 opener against Illinois State. The Hawkeyes won 40-0, lifting the total over the closing line of 36.5.
The Cyclones don’t have quite the same reputation for low-scoring games as their in-state rival. Iowa State’s over/under is 5-5 in its last 10 games with the under hitting by 27.5 points in their lone game this season against North Dakota.
If history is an indication of what we should expect at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, the under is likely the right side. Over their last 10 meetings, dating back to 2013, these two teams have gone 2-7-1 to the under. Of the seven games that finished below the total, they did so by an average of 11.28 points. However, it’s important to note that the average closing total over that timeframe was 44.5 points, which is nearly 10 points higher than this year's total set at 35.5.
I quite honestly can’t believe I’m saying this, but Iowa’s offense is one of the main factors that could sabotage the under in this weekend’s matchup. Shocking, I know, because last season the Hawkeyes finished 130th of 133 teams in points per game. Iowa’s offense was so bad that it finished the year with 1,048 more punting yards than total offensive yards.
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It was also so bad that they fired offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, head coach Kirk Ferentz’s son, and hired Tim Lester to take over the position. Lester came over from the Packers where he served as the team’s senior analyst, bringing with him aspects of the Kyle Shannahan offense.
In his first game with the Hawkeyes, Iowa generated 492 yards of total offense, with 251 yards coming from the passing game. I understand that’s just a one-game sample size and we shouldn’t overreact considering the opponent, but those numbers are hard to ignore for a team whose offense has been completely anemic over the last decade.
While I certainly couldn’t talk anyone off taking the under on Saturday, my favorite play in the first quarter total under 7. The under has hit in the opening frame in 11 of Iowa’s last 13 games. If you were to bet that in each game, you’d be up +10.35 units with a 74% ROI. The Hawkeyes offense didn’t get going until the second half in Week 1, scoring just a field goal in the first quarter. The Cyclones were able to muster a touchdown in the first 15 minutes against North Dakota, but I don’t see them finding much success against Iowa’s defense.
Whichever way you want to play it, the under is likely the right side!
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