With the college football regular season winding down, Week 14 offers several opportunities to target underdogs with strong moneyline value. Teams like Texas A&M, USC, and Northwestern face tough opponents, but situational factors, public betting trends, and their underdog spirit make them intriguing upset candidates. Whether it’s Texas A&M looking to secure a spot in the SEC title game, USC trying to salvage their season, or Northwestern aiming to spoil Illinois’ momentum, these picks provide excellent potential returns. Let’s dive into why these teams are worth a wager this week.
#20 Texas A&M (8-3) ML vs. #3 Texas (10-1): +185, BetMGM
The Aggies are coming off of a terrible loss to Auburn on the road, which really hurt their chances of making the College Football Playoff. In order to make it now, they will have to win this game against Texas and then beat Georgia in the SEC title game. That is a tall task for any team in the country, but it starts here at home against their in-state rival. Whoever wins this game will face the Bulldogs in that conference title match, but the Longhorns can afford to lose here and still make the playoff. That could be the difference.
Right now, 59% of the cash is on Texas to cover the spread here at -5.5, and yet the line has dropped from -6 over the last 24 hours. That tells you that some serious respected money has come in on the Aggies here at that number, and the sharps generally are going to be on A&M. The sportsbooks would also love an outright win by the underdog, as there figures to be a ton of moneyline parlays that will have the Longhorns as one of the legs. No matter how you look at it, the squares are on Texas here.
Texas can lose this game and still make the playoff, but the Aggies can’t. They must win this game or their chances at a title are gone completely, so it will be back against the wall time for their program. At home, I think they have a decent shot to get a win.
USC (6-5) ML vs. #10 Notre Dame (10-1): +240, Caesars
This would be a monumental upset that would shake up the CFP big time, but I certainly don’t think it’s impossible, and getting +240 is a lot of value here. Notre Dame looks unstoppable right now, winning and covering in five straight games, and blowing out everyone they have faced since their inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois. They needed to do this as well if they wanted to make the playoff, and so far, they are on track and ranked No. 5. However, a loss to USC would end their chances of making it. We’ve known for a while that they need to run the table.
The Trojans have been a massive disappointment under head coach Lincoln Riley, who came in from Oklahoma as this messiah that was supposed to lead the program back to the promised land. He has not done that, to say the least, and they are just 6-5 this season. The biggest issue has been their horrendous defense, which continues to get ripped every week.
Right now, 86% of cash is on Notre Dame -7.5 to cover the spread. It is even worse on the moneyline, where thousands of moneyline parlays will include the Irish to win. I don’t know about you, but I don’t trust QB Riley Leonard on the road in a big spot. I still don’t think he is that good, but their defense is so good that it wouldn’t matter a lot of times. As an Irish fan, I hope this doesn’t happen, but we always seem to sink in the biggest games.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we lost outright with this much of a lopsided handle. The books would love a Trojans upset.
Northwestern (4-7) ML vs. #23 Illinois (8-3): +235, FanDuel
The Fighting Illini keep winning games where they are getting extraordinarily lucky, and eventually, that luck has to run out. I still think they are not nearly as good as their record says and massively overrated, so once again, I will be fading them here this week against a 4-7 Northwestern team. The Wildcats have a terrible offense, one of the worst in the country, but they do have a really solid defense that can put a halt to the lucktrain that Illinois has been riding all season. When these two in-state rivals play, it is generally pretty competitive.
76% of the handle is on Illinois to cover the -7.5 spread, and again, there is going to be a very large amount of moneyline parlays that are going to involve them since they are a ranked team against an unranked team. The books would love a Wildcat win here, and I really would not be shocked in the slightest if they pulled it off. I would be ecstatic at this +235 number.
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