Week 5 of the college football season offers a couple of exciting opportunities for bettors looking to find value by backing an underdog. We’ve already seen several shocking upsets this year with NIU knocking off Notre Dame in Week 2 and Michigan upsetting USC at home last weekend. Below are two upset alert picks in Week 5 that offer solid betting value on BetMGM.
#22 BYU (4-0) ML at Baylor (2-2): +140, BetMGM
Baylor is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Colorado last week in which the Buffs won in overtime after tying the game on a Hail Mary in regulation. I’m a little concerned about the Bears' ability to bounce back after such a loss, especially against a BYU team that’s playing its best ball right now.
The Cougars come into Week 5 after upsetting a Top 10 Kansas State team, 38-9, last weekend. Some may view this as a letdown spot, but I think it’s a chance for them to ride their momentum against a struggling conference opponent.
BYU’s defense has been the difference maker, ranking second in the Big 12 in points allowed per game (12.8). They forced a very good Wildcats offense into three turnovers and held them to just 4.8 yards per pass. They also forced them into three turnovers - two interceptions and a forced fumble.
Baylor’s offense had a ton of big chunk plays that helped it have success last weekend against Colorado. Jamaal Bell had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run and threw a dime to Monaray Baldwin for a 30-yard touchdown. Three different receivers caught a pass of at least 20 yards. Those explosive plays won’t happen against this BYU defense.
The Cougars also have the longest cover streak in the country with six straight ATS wins. They are also 2-0 ATS in their last two road games. If they cover as 3.5-point underdogs, this game is going to be close enough for them to win outright.
Washington State (4-0) at #25 Boise State (2-1): +225, BetMGM
Despite losing to Oregon in Week 2, Boise State enters Week 5 ranked inside the Top 25. It has one of the best running backs in the country, Ashton Jeanty, who has already racked up 586 yards and 9 touchdowns in just three games this season. However, outside of the run game, the rest of the Broncos offense has been inconsistent at times. If the Cougars can stack the box and make Boise State rely on its passing game, they’ll hang in this one. Washington State’s defense is also averaging two takeaways per game, ranked 17th in the country, and we know turnovers win games.
Offensively for Washington State, it features a dynamic quarterback in John Mateer, who has been a dual-threat nightmare for defenses. He’s amassed 1,102 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, alongside 425 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. With Mateer at the helm, the Cougars have the firepower to turn this game into a shootout, ranking 27th in EPA per play and 3rd in explosive plays. Those are two areas that Boise State’s defense has struggled to defend. The Broncos also struggled to contain Portland State’s dual-threat QB at times last week and Mateer is significantly better.
Despite being on the road, I like Washington State’s chances of forcing Boise State into a shootout and pulling off the upset.
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