The AFC Divisional matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills has all the ingredients to be the game of the weekend. Two of the league’s top MVP candidates squaring off with a spot in the AFC Championship on the line? Sign me up.
The Ravens punched their ticket with a commanding 28-14 win over the Steelers in the Wild Card round, while the Bills dismantled the Broncos 31-7. Despite owning home-field advantage, Buffalo opened as a slim 1.5-point favorite, essentially a toss-up on a neutral field. However, early money has swung the line in Baltimore’s favor, making them the current -1.5 favorite. The total has seen a slight dip, opening at 52.5 and now sitting at 51.5.
Why the Bills Can Win
Buffalo’s hopes rest on the shoulders of MVP frontrunner Josh Allen, who’s playing some of the best football of his career. Since the Bills Week 12 bye, Allen has turned the ball over just once, throwing for 12 touchdowns, running for seven more, and taking only three sacks. His dual-threat ability makes this offense unpredictable and nearly impossible to contain. Running back James Cook is coming off a monster game with 120 rushing yards against Denver’s elite run defense, and the receiving corps has been stepping up all year, with Ty Johnson making a few big plays last weekend and rookie Keon Coleman delivering in key moments.
Defensively, the Bills are anchored by Matt Milano and Von Miller, who are great at creating pressure and limiting scoring opportunities. Their ability to force Lamar Jackson into quick decisions will be critical. However, the Bills’ secondary remains a concern, ranking 24th in pass defense and allowing 28 passing touchdowns this season. Slowing Baltimore’s run game to prevent their play-action attack will be a tall task.
Home-field advantage is a factor that could tip the scales in Buffalo’s favor. Bills Mafia is infamous for creating one of the loudest environments in football, making it difficult for opposing offenses to operate. While the cold weather and potential snow won’t give either team a significant edge, the noise factor could be a game-changer.
Why the Ravens Can Win
Baltimore boasts the NFL's best rushing defense, allowing just 77.2 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per attempt. If they can shut down Buffalo’s run game, particularly on early downs, they’ll force the Bills into longer, less manageable situations. During the regular season, Buffalo faced just three top-10 run defenses (in yards per attempt) and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, giving me every reason to believe they’ll continue to struggle against Baltimore.
Offensively, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are a daunting task for any opposing defense. In their Wild Card win over the Steelers, Henry steamrolled his way to 186 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, while Jackson added 81 rushing yards. This dynamic duo also torched Buffalo in their Week 4 matchup, with Henry racking up 199 yards and Jackson adding 54 on just six carries.
In that earlier meeting, the Ravens jumped out to a quick lead, scoring on their first three possessions, while their defense held Josh Allen to just 180 passing yards. That was before Baltimore’s defense found its rhythm. Now firing on all cylinders, this unit is well-equipped to frustrate Allen and his playmakers once again.
Best Bet: Ravens ML (-110)
Despite being the higher seed and playing at home, the Bills face an uphill battle. The Ravens have the edge on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense, where the combination of Jackson and Henry has been unstoppable. The line movement in Baltimore’s favor also suggests sharp money is backing the road team. This matchup will likely be tighter than their Week 4 meeting, but Baltimore’s balance and momentum gives them the upper hand. Take the Ravens to advance to the AFC Championship.
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