The AFC North rivalry heats up as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. With playoff implications on the line and a cold, windy forecast in Pittsburgh, this divisional showdown sets the stage for a hard-fought battle. Both teams lean heavily on the ground game and short-yardage passing, making this matchup ripe for intriguing player prop bets. From Najee Harris' rushing workload to David Njoku’s consistent target share, here are the top prop picks to consider for this primetime clash.
Steelers RB Najee Harris Over 63.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (-113, FanDuel)
It’s going to be cold and windy in Pittsburgh for this game and the game script should favor the running game for the Steelers as home favorites. Harris has been the unquestioned workhorse in this backfield all season long and has gone over this number in six of 10 games, missing it by half a yard last week, when he took 18 carries for 63 yards against the Ravens. He’s gotten at least 18 carries in each of the last four weeks and no less than 13 carries in a game all season, so he should continue to get handoffs throughout this one.
On Sunday, this Browns team allowed the Saints to rack up 214 rushing yards against them as Taysom Hill shredded them with seven carries for 138 rushing yards and three scores. Over the last two weeks with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah out, Cleveland has allowed 6.1 yards per carry and in this divisional game, I think we’re going to see Pittsburgh run the ball down their throats. Also note that Myles Garrett has been dealing with a hip injury and will not be at 100% for this one, which also positively affects Harris’ outlook. The BetQL Model projects him to rush for 85 yards.
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren Over 33.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (-113, FanDuel)
It’s very rare that I bet the over on two running backs on the same team, but I’m going to here. With 44, 46, 66 and 41 rushing yards over the last four weeks (on 12, nine, 14 and nine carries), Warren is going to get rushing volume in what could end up being a lopsided affair. This, in my opinion, should be much closer to 40 yards and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some line movement there before kickoff. Get this number while you still can.
Browns TE David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Steelers (-115, FanDuel)
Jameis Winston has taken nine sacks over the last two games and now tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. is going to be out with a knee injury. That’s great news for T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and this Pittsburgh defense and that all bakes into this play because Njoku should be the recipient of quick targets from Winston. Njoku has caught five or more passes in five straight games, including all three of Winston’s starts and he’s seen seven, 14, seven, seven and nine targets in that span. Last week, he caught all nine of his targets for 81 yards against the Saints and should see a similar amount of volume this week since Winston might be less likely to throw downfield in the wind and will want to get the ball out quickly with quick, high-percentage reads.
Steelers-Browns: Most Bet Player Props from BetMGM
As anticipation builds for the AFC North clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, bettors have targeted several key player props. Among the most popular is George Pickens’ receiving yards total. The over on 58.5 yards (-130) has seen significant action, reflecting confidence in Pickens' ability to exploit the Browns' secondary. Najee Harris has also drawn attention, with many backing him to surpass 17.5 rushing attempts (-115) and 67.5 rushing yards (-110). Bettors clearly expect Harris to be a focal point in Pittsburgh’s game plan against Cleveland's stout defense.
Another surprising prop that has garnered attention is Russell Wilson's over 182.5 passing yards (-150). Despite not being in this matchup, Wilson’s prop data from BetMGM underscores a trend toward safer, volume-based plays. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston’s over 216.5 passing yards (-115) shows bettors banking on opportunities in the air, though his recent performances may make this bet riskier.
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