Week 13’s Monday Night Football clash between the Browns (3-8) and Broncos (7-5) presents a compelling slate of player prop betting opportunities. With Cleveland’s gunslinging Jameis Winston leading the charge and Denver’s top receiving threats facing favorable matchups, there’s value to be found on both sides of the ball. From Winston’s passing attack to Javonte Williams’ rushing struggles, here are the top props to target for this primetime showdown.
My Season Record: 79-48 (62.2%, +19.52 units)
Browns QB Jameis Winston Over 227.5 Passing Yards vs. Broncos (-114, BetRivers)
Since taking over as Cleveland’s starter in Week 8, Winston has thrown the ball 10-plus yards downfield on 41.9% of his pass attempts as one of the true gunslingers in the league. With not much to lose at this point of the season or his career, I expect him to come out slinging the ball all over the field in this one in primetime. He’s comfortable throwing the ball downfield against the blitz this season, too, which is important because Denver blitzes at one of the highest rates in the entire NFL, especially on first and second downs. I expect Winston and the Browns (+6) to be playing from behind, which could allow him to rack up some chunk yardage through the air.
Browns WR Jerry Jeudy Under 59.5 Receiving Yards vs. Broncos (-113, FanDuel)
Revenge game alert! Jeudy will return to Denver to take on the team that drafted him and then traded him away. Since Winston took over as QB1, the wideout has been thriving, racking up five catches on eight targets for 79 yards against the Ravens, seven catches on 11 targets for 73 yards against the Chargers, six catches on 11 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown against the Saints and then six catches on six targets for 85 yards against the Steelers. I wish I could like him this week, but I suspect Patrick Surtain II will shadow him. On the season, Surtain has been one of the best corners in the NFL, allowing the 5th-lowest passer rating when targeted with zero touchdowns against him.
Browns WR Elijah Moore Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Broncos (+128, BetRivers)
Since I expect Jeudy to be locked up, someone has to benefit. David Njoku’s receptions and yardage props are a little too high for my liking and I really love this one at this price. Since Winston took over at QB1, Moore has attracted 12, nine, eight and five targets and has gone over this mark twice in that span. He should have double-digit target upside, especially with fellow WR Cedric Tillman out with an injury. I can see Moore getting moved around in formations and he has a much better matchup than Jeudy, who should be a popular public pick.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton Over 60.5 Receiving Yards vs. Browns (-120, BetMGM)
Sutton has attracted a team-high 31.2% of first read targets from Bo Nix this season and has thrived against single-high coverage while lining up on the outside. Cleveland plays man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the league and has struggled badly against outside wideouts, which bodes well for Sutton. He couldn’t be hotter heading into this matchup, either, as this has been the most productive stretch of his career with 100, 122, 70, 78 and 97 yards over the last five contests. This is a spot that I want to attack and I think this is a logical ladder play as well.
Broncos RB Javonte Williams Under 35.5 Rushing Yards vs. Browns (-112, BetRivers)
This is the biggest no-brainer on the board, in my opinion. Over the last three weeks, Williams has recorded one, 59 and negative-two rushing yards. While Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime have not overtaken him yet, the writing is on the wall and this is a brutal matchup for him to rush with success. Last week against the Steelers, the Browns notably stuffed many rushes at or before the line of scrimmage and have stacked the box an NFL-high 25.4% of the time this season. I assume that Cleveland’s defensive game plan will stay the same in this one, as they force Nix to throw the ball one-dimensionally and take the running game out completely.
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