The Detroit Lions just can’t catch a break.
All season long, it’s been a revolving door of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. But on Sunday, they took a massive hit on offense when David Montgomery went down.
The veteran running back injured his knee in the second quarter of Week 15’s matchup with the Buffalo Bills. While he managed to return in the second half, he was far from effective. After the game, head coach Dan Campbell revealed Montgomery suffered an MCL injury and will require season-ending surgery.
This news stings for the Lions, their fans, and anyone who bet Montgomery’s season-long props. He finishes the year with 775 rushing yards—just half a yard shy of the 775.5-yard over cashing. Brutal.
On the bright side, those who bet on Jahmyr Gibbs’ season-long props have to be feeling good.
With Montgomery and Gibbs splitting carries all season, Week 15 marked the official start of the Gibbs Show. Since Week 8, Gibbs’ rushing yard props have hovered between 63.5 and 73.5 yards, hitting the over just four times. With Montgomery out, that number is about to climb significantly for Week 16 against the Bears.
The good news? Gibbs is more than ready for the workload. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry, the fourth-best mark in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson (6.4), Saquon Barkley (5.9), and Derrick Henry (5.8). While his yards per carry might not skyrocket, his touches—and total yards—are almost guaranteed to jump.
We’ve already seen glimpses of Gibbs’ potential when he’s been the workhorse. Last season, with Montgomery sidelined, Gibbs had three big performances:
- Week 3 vs. Falcons: 17 carries for 80 yards (a big jump from his 7 carries in Weeks 1 and 2).
- Week 7 vs. Ravens: 11 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown, plus 9 catches for 58 yards.
- Week 8 vs. Raiders: A season-high 26 carries for 152 yards and a score.
It’s worth noting that backup RB’s Craig Reynolds and rookie Sione Vaki will likely see some action behind Gibbs. If the Lions build a comfortable lead against Chicago this week, Dan Campbell may rest Gibbs in the second half, giving Reynolds a shot to rack up some late-game yards. Reynolds’ props are definitely worth monitoring.
Looking ahead, books are going to set Gibbs’ props high for the rest of the season, and understandably so. While I wouldn’t touch his unders, it’s worth keeping game flow in mind. A blowout could mean fewer second-half carries for Gibbs and more for Reynolds.
That said, Week 18 against the Vikings could decide the NFC North title and potentially the No. 1 seed in the conference. If that happens, expect Gibbs to get all the work and consider taking his overs, depending on the price.
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