One of the last Monday Night Football games of the season will feature a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship Game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. While San Francisco won that game and advanced to the Super Bowl last year, these teams have moved in completely opposite directions ever since. Detroit is one of the best teams in football in 2024, sitting at 13-2 and having won four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the 49ers have already been eliminated from playoff contention with a 6-9 record, and have lost four of their last five contests.
Both of these teams are suffering from a myriad of injuries, but the Lions have been able to overcome them, while the 49ers have stumbled. Star running back David Montgomery is out for the foreseeable future, but many of the Lions injuries are on defense. They have lost DE Aiden Hutchinson, LB Alex Anzalone, CB Carlton Davis lll, and LB Malcolm Rodriguez among others. The roster is wearing thin, but they just keep winning anyway, and that is a testament to coaching and depth.
San Francisco has been without their own star running back Christian McCaffery for a lot of this season, and even their backups have been out. RB Jordan Mason is also on IR, and third-string back Issac Guerendo has also been beat up. WR Brandon Aiyuk has also been missed, but once again, they have really been beat up on defense. LB De’Vondre Campbell is out, as is CB Charvarius Ward. The good news for them is that they have recently gotten some reinforcements in the form of LB Fred Warner and DE Nick Bosa, both key pieces that have returned.
Over at BetMGM, the Lions are currently a -3.5 favorite at a price of -110. Absolutely no one seems to be afraid to lay more than a touchdown in this game, as over 90% of all tickets at the book are on the Lions to cover the spread. In addition to that, over 90% of the money is also on Detroit to cover. There is no question that the Lions are about as square as it gets tonight, and the books are going to be cheering on the 49ers in a big way. However, even I have to admit that over the last seven weeks, it has been a generational run for NFL favorites.
Still, I like San Francisco here at anything over a field goal. Getting Nick Bosa back makes a massive difference on the defensive line, and TE George Kittle is going to have a very juicy matchup here against a depleted Lions defense. Speaking of that defense, I am not sure this line is adjusted enough to account for how devastated they are on that side right now. Fading Dan Campbell is never an easy button to push, as he has gone an insane 45-20-1 ATS as head coach of Detroit.
In terms of props, as I mentioned, Kittle will have a great matchup in this game. WR Deebo Samuel as well should have a good one as well, even with his recent struggles. Also, rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall is going to see some work here as well, and his lines are fairly low for how much action he will see.
Best Bets: 49ers +3.5, Deebo Samuel Over 48.5 Receiving Yards, Ricky Pearsall Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
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