Thursday’s NBA slate features several intriguing matchups, and that means plenty of player prop betting opportunities. With key injuries, recent trends, and matchup advantages in mind, here are the best prop bets to target for tonight’s action.
Knicks PG Jalen Brunson Over 8.5 Assists vs. Bulls (-105, BetMGM)
I’ve been targeting point guard assists against the Bulls all season long and I don’t plan on stopping anytime soon! Chicago has allowed 10.52 assists per game to opposing floor generals, most in the NBA, and Brunson not only has the best matchup possible at the position, but should get some extra ball-handling duties with Josh Hart out. With Hart off the floor this season, Brunson’s assist rate has increased 7.25% to a team-high 39.18%, so there’s a ton to like about this option today, even with a blowout risk. Brunson had eight dimes in both of his previous matchups against Chicago this season with a team-high 13.0 potential helpers on average. However, Hart averaged 8.0 assists on 11.0 potential assists in those two contests and with him out, Brunson should absorb some of that production. Don’t be shocked if Brunson has a ceiling assist game tonight.
Magic SF Franz Wagner Over 26.5 Points vs. Hawks (-125, BetMGM)
With Jalen Suggs out, I think we’re going to see a very similar game script that we did when these teams met back on February 10. In that contest, we saw Wagner go 15-for-29 shooting for 37 points while teammate Paolo Banchero went 10-for-22 for 31 of his own. No other Magic player shot the ball more than six times as the two co-stars completely dominated a concentrated attack. Atlanta will be missing Jalen Johnson and some other rotational guys due to injuries, just traded away their best defensive wing De’Andre Hunter and is a terrible defensive team, so I have no issue backing Wagner here. Going into this game, the Hawks have allowed the 4th-most points per game to opposing small forwards this season (23.46) and that doesn’t even fully factor in the current situation.
Hawks PG Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists vs. Magic (-135, BetMGM)
Leading the NBA with 11.5 assists on 21.1 potential assists per game, Young had eight assists against this Magic team when they played on the 10th, but had 17 potential dimes in that contest, which proved he had some untapped upside. With Jalen Johnson, Larry Nance Jr., Kobe Bufkin and Vit Krejci all ruled out and De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic traded away, Young will continue to see huge assist numbers for the rest of the year. To highlight that, he dropped 19 helpers on 24 potential dimes against the Knicks in the final game before the All-Star break. Especially with Suggs, an elite on-ball defender, out, I really like this play.
Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 6.5 Rebounds vs. Pacers (-145, BetMGM)
Even though it seems like he should be an above-average rebounder, Jackson has failed to make a strong impact on the glass over and over again this season and throughout his career. He’s stayed under this number 11 consecutive times and has only seen an average of 10.6 rebounding chances in that span, behind teammates Zach Edey (16.0) and Desmond Bane (12.3) and just ahead of Brandon Clarke (9.8). He will likely check Pascal Siakam for a large portion of this game as well, which is notable since Siakam spends time away from the paint with a dynamic offensive game. JJJ has stayed under 6.5 boards in six of his last eight head-to-head matchups against Siakam and I don’t mind grabbing this at -145.
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