Welcome back to Big Will Bets: Weekend Winners! We have an absolutely electric board this weekend. Now, I don’t want to brag, but we went 4-1 last weekend and had a shot to go 5-0 if Arizona had handled their business against BYU. We have been doing so well that I have enough money to finally try a tournament gambling strategy that I have always wanted to follow. More on that later. Now, enough bragging about the money I’ve been raking in, let’s get into the bets.
Early Bird Gets the Worm: #1 Auburn (26-2) at #17 Kentucky (19-9)
What a great game to start our weekend! Kentucky is looking to get to 20 wins in their first season without Coach Cal, and Auburn is looking to continue their historic run in an absolutely loaded SEC. This game is going to feature two great offenses, so money will be made on the team that plays the best defense. While Kentucky has a top 10 offense in the country, their defense is weak (at least weaker than Auburn's defense). The Wildcats have the 61st best defense in the country, Auburn has the 12th best defense in the country. There are few things you can rely on in college basketball, but defense is certainly one of those things. Bet the Tigers for their superior defense.
Auburn -5.5.
Road Dawgs: #10 Texas Tech (21-7) at Kansas (19-9)
HOW IN THE WORLD IS TEXAS TECH A 2.5-POINT UNDERDOG TO KANSAS?! Kansas has been an absolute dumpster fire this year. The Jayhawks blew a game to Houston when they were up by six with 18 seconds left to go in the first overtime, blew a 21-point lead to Baylor, and got dominated at home by BYU just a few weeks ago. At one point, Bill Self literally said that he needed a break from this team. Is this Kansas team a tournament team? Yes, but they are not a real contender for the title. On the other hand, Texas Tech is a legit title contender. They have a top 10 offense and top 30 defense in the country. The Red Raiders run a slow, methodical offense, but they consistently find open looks and convert at a high rate. I was going to bet Texas Tech anyway, but getting 2.5 points is almost stealing. Might even sprinkle the moneyline at +133.
Texas Tech +2.5.
First Saturday in March: #6 Alabama (23-5) at #5 Tennessee (23-5)
I can’t believe that I’m going to say this about a Tennessee basketball game, but I think this game is going to hit the over. These two teams are the exact opposite of each other. Alabama wants to play fast, Tennessee wants to play slow. Alabama is built to play offense, Tennessee is built to play defense. But, both teams have made slight changes to the weaker part of their team strategies in order to be a more well-rounded team. This year, Tennessee has a top 25 offense and Alabama has a top 40 defense. Both legit title contenders. The reason this game is going to go over is because no one stops Alabama’s offense, and Tennessee’s offense will convert on their quality looks. It doesn’t matter how fast the Volunteers go, or how many shots they get, if they make those shots. While I think Alabama has a much improved defense from previous years, I don’t think it will be enough to completely stop Tennessee. I can’t wait for this game!
Over 153.5.
Haves and Have Nots: #12 Texas A&M (20-8) at #3 Florida (24-4)
The Florida Gators are not getting enough hype this season. I get why. The SEC is loaded and Auburn is the clear favorite to win the title. But, the Gators rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They play a fast uptempo offensive style that is fun to watch and a smothering defense that locks down opposing offenses. Texas A&M is a good team. Probably a team that will make the second weekend of the tournament. The problem with the Aggies is that they have a massive Achilles Heel. They are not strong offensively. The Aggies currently rank 53 in the country on offense. Is that bad? No, but it is not championship worthy. Florida will shut down this Aggies offense. The Gators have a shot at winning a title, and Texas A&M does not. Take the Gators in this one.
Florida -8.5.
Classic Big 12 Matchup: #22 Arizona (19-9) at #9 Iowa State (21-9)
This is the most even matchup of the weekend. Arizona has the 17th best offense in the country, Iowa State has the 23rd. Iowa State has the 11th best defense in the country, Arizona has the 18th. Arizona plays fast, Iowa State plays fast. Two well rounded teams that play a similar style of basketball. So where do I lean? I like the Wildcats in this spot because they are the dawg. In a game that profiles as a back and forth game, always take the dawg because you have more wiggle room. Is it the most scientific pick? No, but no one picks Arizona because of science, unless maybe they are hoping to major in a different kind of chemistry.
Arizona +5.5.
ASUN Tourney Winner: North Alabama +240
This bet is simple, North Alabama has the best odds of the two favorites to win this tournament. I was told long ago that conference tournaments typically are won by the top teams in the regular season. In the ASUN regular season, Lipscomb and North Alabama finished in a tie for first, and they went 1-1 against each other. Those facts make this tournament feel like a toss up. If a tournament is a toss up, I typically bet the team with the best plus money odds. Lipscomb is -167, North Alabama is +240. Feels like they are the right bet.
Conclusion
March is finally here! March is the best month of the year and I can’t wait to be knee deep in college basketball all month long. Remember though, March is a Marathon, not a sprint. Don’t blow everything now when the tournament hasn’t even started yet. Always gamble responsibly. Good Luck, Friends!
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