Upsets happen every night in college basketball, and Wednesday’s slate presents several intriguing underdog spots that may be flying under the radar. While the betting public tends to lean toward favorites, sharp bettors know that certain lines tell a different story. Tonight, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Illinois State all fit the bill as undervalued teams in matchups where the oddsmakers may be giving us a clue. Let’s break down why these underdogs are worth backing.
Penn State ML vs. Nebraska (+105, BetMGM)
I hate fading the corn, but I also cannot ignore this line that the oddsmakers are giving us for this game. All you really have to do is look at these two teams' records and you would know instantly who is the far better basketball team. Nebraska is 17-9 on the season, have won four of their last five games, and have covered in four of their last five as well. Meanwhile, Penn State has lost nine of their last 10 games and is sinking faster than quicksand. They have failed to win or cover the spread in five straight games too.
So, which team do you think should be favored here? While Nebraska is technically favored, it is only by -1.5 against a team that has been totally collapsing into Oblivion. Everyone and their brother is going to hammer the Cornhuskers only laying less than two points tonight, as it seems like a really obvious bet that they would win the game as the far better and hotter team.
However, as I always say, I think there is a reason the line is set where it is. When something seems really obvious, oftentimes it is not in the college basketball betting world. I’ll take a shot on the Nittany Lions to get the win tonight and finally break their horrendous streak of losing SU and ATS.
Notre Dame ML vs. SMU (+115, BetMGM)
Here is another game where the line is trying to tell you something, but a majority of the public is probably going to ignore it. There is no question that SMU is a far better basketball team, sitting at 19-6 on the season compared to Notre Dame, who is just 11-14 themselves. The Mustangs are coming off a bad loss to Wake Forest at home, so many would think this is a clear bounce back spot for them against a far worse opponent in the Irish.
However, the line is saying otherwise. Notre Dame is just a very small +2 underdog to the Mustangs in this game despite having a far worse record on the year. The Irish are just 1-4 SU in their last five games, and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. I can promise you that the majority of bets are going to be on SMU to win this game at a short number, as they are obviously a better team in almost every way.
That is why I am taking Notre Dame to get the win, as there is a reason they are just a small underdog despite being a far worse team that hasn’t been able to cover a spread in weeks. When everyone zigs we are going to zag, and this line is bait for the public, essentially begging them to bet the Mustangs.
I think getting +115 is a great price here, but if you want to be a bit safer, you can take the +2 as well.
Illinois State ML vs. Bradley (-105, BetMGM)
As someone who has lived in both Normal and Peoria, Illinois, I know how big the rivalry is around these parts. The two cities and schools are just a 45 minute drive apart down the freeway, so it is always a fun topic of conversation here when Illinois State and Bradley battle it out. I hate to tell the people of Peoria this, but I think Normal is going to get the better of them tonight in the rivalry.
Bradley is obviously the better team, with a 21-6 record and winners of three straight games in which they covered the spread in all of them. On the other side, Illinois State is 15-12 but have now lost three in a row, and failed to cover in two of those games. Naturally, you would expect Bradley to get the win, but this line is telling something different.
The Redbirds are just a +1 underdog here at home, despite three losses in a row. The two teams have been going in complete opposite directions, and the game is essentially a pick ‘em. There is a reason for that, and that is because Illinois State is probably going to win. Sorry Peoria, but BloNo is going to pull this one out.
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