TRENTON, N.J. (WCBS 880) — With the race for New Jersey governor tightening, there are several factors that could influence who comes out on top this Election Day.
Six months ago, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was comfortably ahead in the polls, but now, his lead over former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is in the single digits.
In a non-presidential election year, the get-out-the-vote effort is critical for both candidates, said Kristoffer Shields, assistant professor at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University.
"Probably the biggest concern from Murphy's perspective is what turnout will be like amongst Democrats," Shields said. "There seems to be some recent erosion in President Biden's approval rating and some sense that Republicans might be more motivated right now than Democrats in general. If that's the case in New Jersey, then I think that's probably the biggest concern that the Murphy camp would have."
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Historically in New Jersey, Shields said the party that wins the presidency one year loses the governorship the next. It's been that way since the mid-1980s.
Both candidates are now appealing to unaffiliated voters who potentially have the power to sway an election.
"Generally, elections in New Jersey come down to those unaffiliated voters or turnout, and I think this is probably a race where it comes down more to turnout, although you have seen the Ciattarelli campaign really target some of those unaffiliated voters by moderating his message a little bit and trying to distance himself a little bit from the Trump wing of the Republican Party in the hopes of pulling some of those independent voters over," Shields explained.
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Low voter turnout could also hurt Murphy's re-election bid.
"In a year like this, in an odd-numbered year, governor is at the top of the ballot, so the turnout numbers are going to be significantly lower than they were, say, last year when you had a presidential race, so it really does sort of become a turnout election," Shields said.
Murphy is running on his record and handling of the pandemic, while Ciattarelli keeps hammering away at taxes.
New figures out Monday from the Election Law Enforcement Commission show Ciattarelli has nearly matched incumbent Murphy's spending in the election so far.
Ciattarelli has spent about $12.4 million so far with Murphy expending nearly $12.6 million. Murphy has $3.5 million cash on hand compared with nearly $700,000 for Ciattarelli.
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The Associated Press contributed to this report.