San Francisco has the third-highest COVID-19 transmission rate in California, with an average of 104 cases per 100,000 people.
City officials said Tuesday the case rate is the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic. But despite the troubling numbers as the omicron variant spreads, health experts at UCSF are encouraged that the city's surge might soon be reaching its peak.
While there were twice as many patients in the hospital with COVID-19 on Monday as there were a month ago, hospital operations remain unaffected, Dr. Bob Wachter, UCSF Chair of Medicine, told KCBS Radio this week.
"We're certainly seeing a surge, and it is a reflection of the huge increase in the number of cases all over the Bay Area and all over the country," he said in an interview. "This omicron variant is certainly much, much more infectious than anything we’ve seen before."
But their system is holding fast, and has yet to be overwhelmed by the
number of increasing cases. Still, daily cases in San Francisco are more than double what they were during last winter's peak.
In a sign of the times, the city's updates are back on Zoom.
"Among our highly vaccinated, boosted city, most COVID cases will be mild or even asymptomatic," Dr. Grant Colfax, San Francisco's public health director, said on Tuesday.
Colfax added that increased infections can impact hospitalizations. Wachter was optimistic, noting numbers "seemed to plateau" about four or five days ago.
"I think we may be seeing an early peak here," Wachter said. "I’m not ready to go to the bank on it but it is surprising to me that we have plateaued so early."
In the meantime, San Francisco must still contend with staffing concerns. Those fears extend beyond hospitals.
With 81% of the city fully vaccinated and 54% of fully vaccinated residents having received a booster dose, according to San Francisco's data, Mayor London Breed said she is not ordering another shutdown.
But staff shortages are making it difficult to run businesses and services.
"We already have a large number of people quarantining," Breed said. "And this will only increase over the next few weeks. It's impacting our workforce, especially among front-line workers."
The latest COVID-19 surge has caused delays for the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, while police officers and firefighters are working overtime to fill in for their colleagues.
Although Wachter said the number of patients coming in for unrelated medical treatment and then testing positive for COVID-19 has decreased after passing its peak, relief isn't here quite yet. Right now, Wachter estimates about one in 12 UCSF patients are testing positive with no symptoms.
This provides a general idea of San Francisco's asymptomatic population, according to Wachter. He said in a restaurant with about 20 people feeling fine, there's a good chance at least one of them has COVID-19.
Even as Wachter estimates San Francisco is near its peak, the city is not out of the woods just yet. City officials on Tuesday residents take extra precautions, including wearing high-quality masks, to help slow the spread.
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