According to a recent report, murders in the US are on the rise, but the rate of homicides being solved is among the lowest ever, as murderers have around a 50% chance of getting away with it.
The report comes from the Murder Accountability Project, and points to the number of homicides reported solved every year, according to FBI data.
In 1980, the report says that 71% of homicides were deemed solved, while in 2020, that number was only 50% — 2020 was the last time the data was compiled.
The group points to the increase in unsolved murders, which has continued to be a trend for many decades. For example, in 1965, the clearance rate — a term used to define the number of homicides solved — was 90%.
The founder of the Murder Accountability Project, Thomas Hargrove, spoke with the Guardian about the report, noting that this moment is monumental.
“We’re on the verge of being the first developed nation where the majority of homicides go uncleared,” Hargrove said.
However, the report does note that 2020 was an outlier from recent years, as homicides had a sudden and abrupt spike during the year. But while murders increased rapidly, the number of solved killings barely moved upward.
While the Murder Accountability Project has found shocking statistics behind the country’s unsolved homicides, it is not the only organization looking into the situation.
Another group, the Marshall Project, works similarly to Hargrove’s, as they compile their own data because no government database exists that tracks the outcomes of police investigations into homicides.
Findings from the Marshall Project suggest that in 2020, only “about 1 of every 2 murders” were solved, a “historic low.”
Some have pushed back on the findings, noting that departments and agencies follow different criteria when they decide a case has been cleared. The report from the Murder Accountability Project says that most see a case cleared when someone has been arrested, charged, and given to the court for prosecution.
The FBI follows the same standards but will also mark a case as cleared for “exceptional means.” This could include when victims don’t take the case to trial, suspects are tried for other crimes, or if the suspect dies.
While it seems that having a lower clearance rate has a negative connotation, experts like Philip Cook note that it could be a sign of progress.
Cook, who is a public policy researcher at the University of Chicago Urban Labs, has been studying clearance rates since the 1970s. He spoke with The New York Post about the report from the Murder Accountability Project.
“It also could be that the standards for making an arrest have gone up, and some of the tricks they were using in 1965 are no longer available,” Cook told the Post.
Still, there are those, like Tinisch Hollins, an executive director of a California justice reform group, who think the issue is that police aren’t doing what they need to be.
“People don’t need to see the data to know that the police are not doing their job,” Hollins told the Guardian. “My perception is that police are failing to do their job.”
Others have pointed to the pandemic for causing a spike in homicides, people being unwilling to work with police, and protests calling for the abolishment or defunding of police. But Hargrove says it’s a failure of political and local leaders to enact change where it’s needed.
“The Murder Accountability Project firmly believes declining homicide clearance rates are the result of inadequate allocation of resources — detectives, forensic technicians, crime laboratory capacity, and adequate training of personnel,” Hargrove said.
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