The bracket is out, the matchups are set and the College Football Playoff is upon us.
And the BetQL staff has found the best bets for you for these games!
Dan Karpuc: Clemson +11.5 at Texas
As I detailed in my 2025 Heisman Watch List article, I’m very high on Cade Klubnik and this Clemson program as a whole. Both of Texas’ losses were to Georgia, which was one of Clemson’s three losses on the year, but Texas’ offense has been sputtering in recent months. The Longhorns have gone 2-5 ATS over their last seven games and have scored under 21 points in four of those contests. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been playing at less than 100%, likely due to his unwillingness to lose his job to Arch Manning (it’s clear to me that Manning gives Texas the best chance to win). Anyhow, backing Dabo Swinney as a +11.5 underdog in a huge game sounds great to me!
Lucy Burdge: Notre Dame -7.5 vs. Indiana
Notre Dame is 19-1 SU in their last 20 games against teams ranked 10-25 and Indiana has failed to cover in two of their last three games and failed to cover in their last road game. Notre Dame has covered in their last eight games and at home they’ve covered their last three. So I like Notre Dame to cover here against Indiana.
Matt Horner: Indiana +7.5 vs. Notre Dame
This is actually kind of a square pick, as a lot of people are apparently fading Notre Dame as well. For the public, it is hard to turn down a full touchdown with an 11-1 team. I also find it difficult to do that in this specific matchup. As a Notre Dame fan, I’ve watched every game this season from start to finish. For some reason, QB Riley Leonard just doesn’t seem to play as well at home. He always looks more timid and less sure of himself, and I’m not sure why. Our only loss of the season came at home to Northern Illinois, which granted was certainly a fluke loss that we win 9/10 times, but it still matters. Indiana is a good team, but there are questions about how they will look against another good team. Ohio State destroyed them, so we’ll see if they show up. I threw a unit on Indiana a while back, and I’ll live with that outcome.
Kate Constable: SMU +8.5 vs. Penn State
Penn State’s defense has been its bread and butter all season long but SMU is equally as good on that side of the ball. Both teams sit tied at No. 8 in yards per play allowed. The Mustangs are also No. 8 in rushing yards allowed and No. 4 in yards per carry allowed, which is extremely important against the Nittany Lions two two-headed monsters in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Offensively, SMU can put up points in a hurry. It has the No. 8 scoring offense and No. 18 passing offense. If there is one area that PSU’s defense struggles, it's the secondary. Plus, the Mustangs are great at generating explosive plays with gains of 20+ yards on 8% of their snaps this season. To win on the road in the playoffs, you need game-changing plays and SMU has the tools to do that. They can keep this game close and cover +8.5.
Ameer Tyree: Ohio State -7.5 vs. Tennessee
The Buckeyes and Volunteers both excel on defense when it comes to stopping the run. They’ve each given up just 2.8 yards per carry and less than 100 rushing yards per game to opposing teams this season. It appears like this game will come down to who has more options. That edge will go to Ohio State. The home team has two running backs with over 750 rushing yards and three receivers with over 500 receiving yards. The Buckeyes have a clear path to winning by more than a touchdown because of their versatility if they limit Dylan Sampson like they have the vast majority of running backs they’ve faced this year. Tennessee’s failed to cover in either of its road losses this season and Ohio State remains one of the toughest places to win. Only Oregon and Michigan have beaten them there over the previous five seasons.
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