In the history of the NCAA Tournament, a No. 2 seed and No. 15 seed have faced each other nearly 150 times, ad in nearly 140 of those matchups, the favorite won -- usually easily. Entering this year's edition of March Madness, that little 15th-seed owned a 9-135 record (.067 win percentage) since the bracket expanded back in 1986. And maybe none seemed as impossible as Thursday night in Indianapolis. Make it 10 wins for David, as Saint Peter's stunned the college hoops world by upsetting Kentucky in overtime.
All of the hallmarks of a No. 2 seed that could fall in the first round weren't part of this Kentucky DNA. This wasn't a perennially mediocre program that had an anomalous great season rewarded with a No.2 seed, like 1997 South Carolina or 2013 Georgetown. The Wildcats were a No. 2 for the third time in their last four tourney appearances. They had experience and one of the best players in the country. Kentucky was playing less than three hours away from home. The arena was jammed with Big Blue Nation, and the Kentucky performance merely left them feeling big and blue.
To be fair to head coach John Calipari, he hasn't routinely flamed out in March at Kentucky. In his 12 seasons at the helm, he's led the program to four Final Fours, seven Elite Eights, and was 17-1 over the first weekend before this year. Under his guidance, Kentucky is 31-9 in the Big Dance. But there's no hiding from the cold truth of Thursday -- he got outcoached by Shaheen Holloway.
The Wildcats looked startled from the opening tip, when it was apparent they weren't waltzing to a blowout. UK was caught flat-footed when the Peacocks went to zone. In overtime, Kentucky melted at the free throw line. Fox Sports college hoops voice John Fanta joined the show Friday morning, and here's what he said: "There were coaches that told Holloway, "Don't take that job... Is it really worth it to take a head coaching position? What if it blows up? But he bet on himself... Last night was the American Dream."
Holloway made something out of nothing, as his friends told him to avoid the Saint Peter's job. Associates told Calipari that he'd be crazy not to accept the Kentucky position. You could make the argument this is the biggest upset in tournament history, based on program discrepancy. The Wildcats reportedly spend more than 12 times as much on basketball as Saint Peter's does.
The only No. 16 seed-No. 1 seed upset was much closer in financials. Virginia "only" spent 5.7 times the amount UMBC did four years ago. When it comes to the haves and have nots, Kentucky has more than almost any other program, and Saint Peter's has less than any other. ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that Holloway ($250K) makes less than all of Calipari's assistants ($300- $850K).
The first five seasons in Lexington were great for Cal, but the last seven years have been a reckoning. After a title in 2012, a championship game appearance in 2014, and a Final Four in 2015, it's fizzled. The Cats haven't gotten past the Elite Eight since then, as a 5th-seed losing to 9th-seed Kansas State in 2018, as a 2nd-seed falling to 5th-seed Auburn in 2019, and last season missing the tourney altogether.
Then this humiliation. Calipari isn't going to be fired, since there's too much guaranteed money still on the hook for UK and their regular season showed signs of renewed greatness. But the fans have every right to wonder if the shine is permanently off Cal's reputation.
"They came out last night and really just they got outplayed," Fanta told me. "They got out-hustled. Sure when you're Kentucky, you're always gonna have that target. But to lose to Saint Peter's University, who had never won a game in the NCAA Tournament in their program history. It's as shocking of an upset as we've seen. It's right there with UMBC over Virginia."
Fanta isn't overreacting. The championship meltdown against Kansas in 2008 was more painful than this, but it certainly wasn't as stunning and inexplicable. The Wildcats' first-round loss to Saint Peter's is the worst of Calipari's career, and likely the worst in program history.