What a week, huh?
The Cardinals closed last week with the signing of Adam Wainwright, began this week with finalizing a trade for elite 3B Nolan Arenado, continued looking into the free agent market for a potential addition to the rotation and then late Thursday night they moved Dexter Fowler to the Angels to clear some at-bats for their other outfielders.
That's a heck of a week and they may not be done. I guess we'll see if someone like Jake Odorizzi - or maybe even an OF bat - ends up being a legit option for the Cards before Spring Training.
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Let's break this blog down into three different pieces....
1) Nolan Arenado is a game changer for the Cards
This is the kind of player Cardinals Nation has been begging for - heck, this is THE PLAYER they've been begging for - and he changes the entire makeup of the lineup. It's hard to be consistent offensively when the middle of the order is limited but haven't Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in the middle should bring increased consistency. Heck, even compared to 2018-2019 when Marcel Ozuna was hitting 4th this is a massive upgrade. Ozuna has been streaky and inconsistent throughout his career while Arenado is the picture of consistency, both with the bat and with the glove.
Arenado is perfect for this team. He is exactly what they needed.
He's the best defensive 3B in the game.
He's a middle of the order hitter.
He's crazy about baseball and loves the work.
Whether he hits 2nd, 3rd or 4th really isn't all that important. He's a masher. His 162-game average season is .293/.349/.541 with 35 HR and 114 RBI...and he plays every single day, averaging 157 games played over the last 5 full seasons (2015-2019). In fact, he referenced playing every single day in his introductory press conference. Arenado says his goal every year is to play at least 155 games and if he's able to do that he believes the numbers will be there in the end.
Arenado also makes a lot of contact, which is an amazing trait in today's strikeout heavy game. His career strikeout rate is just 15% compared to the MLB average which is 22%.
Also, don't worry about the Coors Field effect. Based on the research by really smart people, including Mike Petriello of MLB.com the effect really only exists while a hitter is playing for the Rockies. Once they leave Colorado their performance tends to normalize. Look at DJ Lemahieu as an example. During his time with the Rockies he had one year where he was better than league average offensively (2016) but then he goes to New York and finishes in the top 4 of the MVP race in 2019 and 2020 while his production was a massive 45% above MLB average.
Heck, flash back to Matt Holliday's career. He was 31% above league average during his 6 years in Colorado and he was 38% above league average during his 8 years with the Cardinals even though that counts the last couple of years when he was battling injury and playing in his mid 30's.
Some counting numbers, like HR, might drop off a little but his overall production should be just fine.
2) Dexter Fowler to the Angels, playing time in the OF opens up
So how are things shaping up for the Cardinals in the OF now that Fowler is an Angel?
First of all, it seems likely that RF will belong to Dylan Carlson barring something unforeseen. Carlson projects as a plus defender in RF, IMO, and so long as he hits he should be a mainstay in the lineup. Since I believe he's going to hit I think he really gets the chance to take over as the everyday RF. If he struggles, well, the Cards will have to mix and match more than they'd like.
It also seems likely that CF will belong to Bader if he hits ... particularly if he hits better against RHP. His career numbers against LHP are good so there's little doubt he'll play against lefties but he's going to have to make more contact to stay on the field against RHP. His defense is elite and they want him out there as much as possible because of that but unless the rest of the lineup is just humming along and producing good numbers there may be a time share that forms here.
Tyler O'Neill seems likely to get the first crack at everyday at-bats in LF because he's a Gold Glove OF with high-end power potential but, like Bader, he's going to have to make more contact if he's going to take the job and run with it. The crazy thing about O'Neill is that he still only has 410 MLB at-bats spread out over 3 seasons, which is about 75% of the at-bats an everyday player would get in a full season. So there is still a good bit we don't know about him as a hitter ... though we do know that strikeouts are going to be a big part of his game.
If Bader and O'Neill can make more contact that's a phenomenal defensive OF and there is some power there. That said, it may not be realistic to simply hope for more contact.
That brings us to Lane Thomas and Justin Williams.
Thomas can play all three OF positions, he runs reasonably well and he's got power. What he hasn't had is a real opportunity at extended at-bats in the Majors so he's a bit of an unknown. His numbers at the upper levels of the minors have been good-but-not-great and he is an interesting player. He's not been a .300 hitter and he struck out a good bit at Double-A and Triple-A so we're not talking about a future star, more likely a solid contributor if things go well for him.
Williams brings a different element to the group in that he's a left handed hitter and that could work to his advantage if O'Neill and/or Bader struggle with RHP. His numbers at the upper levels of the minors haven't been as good as Thomas' but Williams has some power potential.
Of course, in this offseason of surprises the Cardinals could pull a rabbit out of their hat and grab an OF off the free agent pile on a bargain deal too. There are some interesting veteran OF out there that don't have a home just yet but I wouldn't expect a big move like, say, the return of Ozuna. It would be nice but I wouldn't expect that. I still love the idea of Danny Santana on a 1-year deal. He struggled in 2020 (just 55 AB) because he was hurt and he had elbow surgery in the offseason but his batted ball numbers are phenomenal. Check this out from 2019:
Exit velocity: 91.4 MPH (89th percentile)
Hard hit rate: 43.6% (76th percentile)
Barrel rate: 9.4% (66th percentile)
Sprint speed: 27.7 feet per second (70th percentile)
That led him to producing an .857 OPS (with no L/R split for him as a switch-hitter) in 511 at-bats. Santana hit 28 HR and stole 21 bases as well all while seeing time at 1B-2B-3B-SS-LF-CF-RF. He's probably a better outfielder than infielder but to be honest defense is not his calling card. The best thing about him defensively is his versatility. As a bench bat, however, I like the versatility and the protection he offers at multiple positions. He's probably not going to be ready for the start of the season but when he's ready he could be a nice depth piece with power and speed from both sides of the plate.
3) Cardinals reportedly in the market for a starting pitcher
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Cardinals and Phillies were shopping for starters - he named James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Jake Odorizzi in his tweet - and then Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch confirmed the Cardinals interest in Odorizzi. Some fun names there.
Now, I don't think the Cardinals have an absolute need in the rotation but more certainty - and more bodies - is never a bad thing. That may be especially true this year as teams figure out how to best handle transition from a 2-month season to a 6-month season.
As of today there appear to be four starters who will absolutely be in the Cardinals' rotation barring injury:
Jack Flaherty
Kwang Hyun Kim
Miles Mikolas
Adam Wainwright
After that there are some really good arms who can compete for the 5th spot:
Carlos Martinez
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Alex Reyes
John Gant
Johan Oviedo
As you can see, there is no "need" for an SP because there's a lot of talent there. That said, there are also questions about everyone but Flaherty.
Kim has never performed over a full Major League season. Mikolas is coming off an injury. Wainwright is 39 years-old. Martinez is, well, Martinez. Ponce de Leon has never performed over a full Major League season. Reyes and his history of arm problems may be better served in the bullpen. Gant has never started for a full season in the Majors and he's a really valuable member of the bullpen. Oviedo is young and may need more seasoning.
Personally I'm confident in the Top 4 listed above, they don't worry me. The others don't worry me either from an ability standpoint but I'm still intrigued about getting another known commodity in there.
Odorizzi went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA (3.36 FIP) in 2019 and he's been a very consistent Major League starter, a bit above average, since 2014.
Paxton, when healthy, is even better. For his career he has a 3.58 ERA (all in the AL) and a 3.31 FIP. The problem with Paxton has been durability. He's never made 30 starts in a season despite putting up good numbers but he's struck out 11 batters per 9 innings over the last three seasons and missing bats has value, plus the Cards have the depth to hold firm if he's in the rotation and misses some time.
Walker is a bit like Paxton - great talent but lots of injuries. He's only pitched 67 innings over the last three seasons (2018-2020) but when he has pitched during that time he has a 2.81 ERA (4.39 FIP). Definitely more of a wild card than the other two but might be worth a look if you're not counting on him for 25-30 starts. Plus, he's just 28 years-old.
So there, one more bit of info to chew on for the rest of the offseason!