The decision announced this week by Boeing to move modification work for the F/A-18 Super Hornet is not a significant blow to its St. Louis operations and appears unrelated to recent labor discord, says Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director of industry consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory.
Instead, he tells KMOX the move helps to free up resources for the next-generation fighter program that has "absolutely revitalized" the future of military aircraft production in the region.
The key point to remember, Aboulafia says, is that this is a change from maintaining older planes to building more new ones.
And with the new-build production line for the Super Hornet already scheduled to end in 2027, he says the focus is on future new aircraft, including the F-15, the T-7 trainer, and most importantly, the new F-47 fighter.
"It's all new build. I am not sure this is related to the the labor disagreement because modification work is generally done at other Boeing facilities anyway," he says. "St. Louis is a new-build center of excellence."
The work being moved is part of the Navy’s Service Life Modification program, which Aboulafia likens to a car overhaul. It can involve swapping in improved components, adding new features, or simply conducting a "service overhaul and keeping things clean and running."
A Boeing spokesperson confirms to KMOX there will be plenty of local opportunities for impacted workers.
The real story for St. Louis is what will take the F/A-18's place. Boeing has said the move will "free up critical space and resources" for next-generation platforms, a reference to the F-47 fighter program. Winning that contract, part of the Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance initiative, was a historic achievement for the company.
"It's one of the pivotal moments in the history of Boeing's military division," Aboulafia says. "That's the most important new combat aircraft program in the country moving forward, and it was their first new project win of that magnitude in many years. A very impressive achievement."
KMOX asked the aerospace analyst to characterize the overall health of the Boeing Defense, Space & Security division in St. Louis. Aboulafia responds that the outlook has dramatically improved.
"They were looking pretty beaten up back a year or so ago, but this F-47 win absolutely revitalizes it, both in terms of its employment, its technology, and, probably moving forward, its profitability," he says. "So, a lot healthier than it's been in decades."