The December Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral. This is the second time in the last three months that the overall reading has climbed above growth neutral 50.0. The Business Conditions Index, which ranges between 0 and 100, rose to 50.6 from November's 48.6.
"Surveys over the past several months indicate that the regional manufacturing economy is being negatively impacted by the trade war with China and the global economic slowdown. This will be a drag on the overall Mid-America economy for the first half of 2020. However, I expect overall regional growth to remain soft but positive for the first half of the year," said Ernie Goss, PhD, director of Creighton University's Economic Forecasting Group. The Kansas Business Conditions Index for December increased to 52.1 from November's 51.0. "For 2019, Kansas's overall economy ranked third in economic performance among the nine Mid-America states. Based on recent surveys, I expect the Kansas economy, for the first half of 2020, to rank third in the region in terms of economic performance with overall annualized inflation-adjusted GDP growth at 2.84%," said Goss.
The December employment index increased to 45.6 from November's very weak 37.2. The availability of workers continues to constrain job growth in the region. In December, seven of 10 supply managers indicated that finding and hiring qualified workers was the greatest 2020 challenge for their firms.
