Grab your popcorn and obnoxiously large soda cause the movie theaters appear to be back three years after the pandemic threw a wrench into how we watch movies. But industry analysts have predicted the return of the theater for months.
During an interview with Audacy in November 2022, box office analyst for Comscore Paul Dergarabedian discussed the ever-changing environment for movies and movie theaters.
While the world appeared to be jumping into the deep end of streaming, thinking that movies at home would far outpace those with a theatrical release, Dergarabedian said that there were signs theaters would return to their once-held status.
“Have things changed? Certainly, they have. Are there challenges for movie theaters? No question. But I think movie theater is here to stay, but how consumers look at the movie theater experience,” Dergarabedian said at the time.
Because of the success of films like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “Top Gun: Maverick,” Degarabedian felt confident that theaters only needed enticing titles to get butts back in seats.
While the summer of 2022 saw fewer movies released than in the summer of 2021, it had an incredible jump in box office numbers, rising 131% compared to the previous year.
“When the pandemic hit, movie theaters saw a massive disruption to their business. A lot of uncertainty,” Dergarabedian said. “And now movie theaters, at least looking at the summer of this year, hit a period of stability and growth, compared to where it was over the last two years.”
Now, Comscore is reporting even more impressive numbers, as, so far this year, the domestic box office has earned $2.3 billion, a 36.8% increase from last year at this time, and a 589.5% increase from this time in 2021, according to a report from Variety.
With movies like “John Wick: Chapter 4,” “Scream VI,” and last weekend’s record-breaking “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” more people are returning to the theater than in recent years.
Degarabedian said in November of last year that if theaters were able to play good movies, then theater-goers would return, and Mario’s return to the big screen showed just that.
The film made $377 million in worldwide ticket sales, the top opening of all time for an animated film, the largest five-day launch in history, and the top opening of 2023 so far.
Variety spoke with Eric Handler, an analyst at Roth Capital Partners, who shared that studios have “found religion” by realizing that having exclusive theatrical releases is going to make them the most money.
“They’ve come to recognize that having an exclusive theatrical window is the best way to maximize profits instead of releasing everything simultaneously on demand,” Handler said. “There’s a lot of marketing value in having your movie in cinemas.”
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