Hurricane Hilary, currently spinning off the Baja California coast, is due to become a powerful category-three hurricane over the next three days. It could be the first intact tropical storm to make landfall in southern California since the 1930s.
Friday morning,
UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain says the storm could have a significant impact come Monday.
He told KNX News, "This tropical storm looks like it will make a beeline for southern California," but probably won't make landfall.
In most cases, Swain would be comfortable saying landfall simply isn't happening, but with Hilary, "I'm telling you that exact outcome probably won't happen. But probably won't happen is not the same thing as it won't happen."
A lingering high-pressure system will keep things generally warm through Saturday, but things will cool gradually each day.
By Saturday, temperatures will be about two to five degrees below normal in most areas, although still comfortably warm.
The big change is expected to come Sunday, with Hilary moving north along the coast of Baja California. The exact track of the storm is still a bit in flux, so it's impacts are still unclear, but Swain says the most heavily impacted areas will be some of the driest in California deserts, like Death Valley, and the Mojave could receive several inches of rain in short periods.
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"The official rain total forecast currently is around 1 to 2 inches area-wide Sunday through Tuesday but with the potential for much higher -- or lower -- amounts depending on the actual (storm) track," according to the NWS.
"The potential exists for isolated flooding and residents, particularly near burn scars should monitor the situation closely. The most likely period for the heaviest rain is later Sunday into Monday, though again the speed and track of the storm will impact the timing and rain intensity."
The rain could be accompanied by gusty winds, particularly Sunday night.
"Another potential impact will be the increase in south to southeast swells this weekend, which could be high enough to create significant issues at south-facing harbors like Avalon and Long Beach, and even as far north as Morro Bay and Port San Luis along the Central Coast," according to the NWS.
"The storm is currently expected to exit the area by Tuesday, but lingering southeast flow aloft will keep at least a chance of showers going through the end of next week."
City News Service contributed to this article
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