You better enjoy that guacamole while avocados are still a thing. Seriously.
A new report predicts that the worsening climate crisis could cause a 14% to 41% decline in the areas used for growing avocados by 2050.
The report, published by Christian Aid, assesses existing environmental data and speaks to some avocado farmers on the front line of extreme weather events and global warming.
"Climate change is leading to a hotter and drier world, threatening the production of avocados and the availability of the precious water they need," Professor Carol Wagstaff, dean for agriculture, food and health at University of Reading, said in a statement.
The superfood favorite is known for its impact on the environment due to its need for lots of water. But this need for water is what makes it especially vulnerable to climate change in a hotter, drier, more drought-prone world.
"Avocados might be a superfood but their kryptonite is climate change," said Mariana Paoli, global advocacy lead at Christian Aid. "They are thirsty plants that are ill-suited to a hotter, drought-prone planet which is where we're heading if rich nations don't act to cut their fossil fuel use and reduce emissions."
Mexico, Spain, Chile and Columbia -- the current major avocado-producing countries -- all face a dramatically changing environment over the next few years of the climate crisis.
The report shows that Mexico, the world's biggest producer, could see its potential growing area reduced by 31% by 2050 even if global average temperature rise was limited to under 2°C, and as much as 43% if global average temperature rises towards 5°C. Under each climate scenario, the country's key avocado growing region, Michoacán, could see its potential growing area reduced between 59% and 72% by 2050, according to the report.
Hot temperatures, heavy rain, and erosion are all having a terrible impact on farmers' productivity and their income.
European heatwaves are on the rise and pose a particular threat to the avocado, according to the report. In 2023, the avocado harvest in Spain was expected to be 60% smaller than that of 2022 as another heatwave enveloped the region. An attribution study found that present elevated greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere made the heatwaves 2.5ºC hotter in Europe, the report noted.
"We need to see richer, polluting countries cut their carbon emissions which is driving this extreme weather and also provide finance to help us adapt to the changing climate," said Jolis Bigirimana, an avocado farmer in Burundi, Africa.
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Christian Aid is calling on governments to commit to urgent emissions reductions and accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels and towards clean, renewable energy. The charity also wants to see more financial support provided to vulnerable agricultural communities that rely on avocado growing for their livelihoods so they can adapt to the changing climate.
"We require a multipronged solution: we have to embrace different cultivation systems that do not rely on deforestation and monoculture production which makes avocado vulnerable to diseases, destroys soil quality and biodiversity, and reduces the availability of water, all of which are crucial to enabling resilience of avocado trees and other crops," said Wagstaff. "Crucially, we also need to stop human activities and industrial processes which drive the higher temperatures and extreme weather events associated with climate change. If we do not take collective action we will lose a lot more than just avocados from our diet and the natural environment."
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