If a power grid failure were to cause a multi-day blackout with heat wave conditions, 50% of the total population of Phoenix, Ariz., would likely need medical attention, according to a study published Tuesday in the Environmental Science and Technology journal.
Last year marked the 12th warmest year recorded in the history of Phoenix, according to the National Weather Service. In addition to Phoenix – the hottest city in the U.S., per AccuWeather – researchers who conducted the recent study regarding electrical grid failures, studied Atlanta, Ga., and Detroit, Mich.
These cities were selected because they have three distinct climate zones in which approximately 75% of the U.S. population resides in, said researchers. They also feature “variable demographic and climatic risk factors for heat illness.”
“The recent concurrence of electrical grid failure events in time with extreme temperatures is compounding the population health risks of extreme weather episodes,” said the study. Indeed, the National Weather Service recently said that much of the country is expected to experience higher than normal temperatures this summer.
According to a February 2022 report in The Wall Street Journal, there were fewer than a dozen major disruptions to the U.S. electrical system in 2000, compared to more than 180 in 2020.
Risks of heat related morbidity were higher in Phoenix compared to Atlanta and Detroit. Research suggests this can “be attributed both to the higher temperatures experienced during an extreme heat wave event and a disproportionate impact of blackout conditions for cities with a high AC prevalence.”
In the Arizona metropolis, temperatures can be around 50 degrees greater in maximum intensity than either of the other cities. The study found that 800,000 people in Arizona would need emergency care for heat stroke or another heat-related ailment if the power grid failed.
“In addition to more intense heat wave conditions for residents of Phoenix, the loss of electrical power produces a disproportionately greater shift in individual heat exposures than estimated for residents of Atlanta or Detroit,” the study found.
In 2021, the Maricopa County Public Health Agency – which serves more than 90% of the Phoenix metropolitan population – reported 130 heat-related deaths among an unhoused population of around 8,200. That was equal to around 1.6% of the total unhoused population in the area.
“The substantial magnitude of heat risk in Phoenix, with more than 50% of the population at risk of heat illness from blackout conditions during a heat wave of historical intensity, suggests the imperative for a high level of electrical grid resilience and back-up power generation, particularly for critical facilities such as hospitals,” the researchers concluded.
As electrical grid failure events increase, the researchers suggest that governments work to prepare for the potential fallout from them.
“Widespread physical changes to the built environment of cities, enhancing evapotranspiration, shading, and solar reflection, carry the potential to measurably reduce estimated levels of heat illness and death,” they said.
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