President Joe Biden is pushing for an Israeli ceasefire agreement to end the war still raging in Gaza. Here’s what you need to know about the three-stage plan that U.S. officials hope will end the conflict.
“This is interesting,” Jasmine El-Gamal, Political Analyst and Former Middle East Advisor at the US Department of Defense in the Obama Administration, told KCBS Radio in San Francisco. “This is pretty much the thing that was on the table a few weeks ago that Hamas had sort of agreed to, and the Israelis did not, with one very, very important difference.”
What’s different about this proposal?
So, what is that difference?
El-Gamal explained that the previous proposal offered by Hamas – a militant organization that carried out the large-scale terrorist attack on Israel that kicked off the war in October – included a more seamless transition between phase one and phase two.
“The sticking point was always with the second phase of the proposal, because Hamas was insisting that in the second phase, there would be a complete withdrawal of all Israeli forces from the entirety of the Gaza Strip and a permanent cease fire,” she said. “And so, Israel was not prepared to sign on the dotted line when it came to that.”
In a Friday X post, Biden laid out the phases of the Israeli version of the plan. Phase one includes: a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza, release of some hostages and some remains of hostages, allowing Palestinian civilians to return to their homes in Gaza and a surge of humanitarian aid. Phase two includes: a permanent end to hostilities, exchange for the release of remaining living hostages and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Phase three includes: a major reconstruction plan for Gaza and final remains of hostages returned to their families.
“He’s saying that the first phase goes on as planned,” said El-Gamal of Biden. “But… there’s the sort of a bridge between the first phase and the second phase, where the Israelis and Hamas would have to negotiate and come to an agreement where the Israelis feel safe enough before they agree to a permanent ceasefire.”
With this “bridge” Biden is giving Israel more of an edge than it had in the first round. El-Gamal said he hopes that will convince Israel to sign this agreement.
Hamas has said it will not release hostages until Israel has agreed to a permanent ceasefire. Deaths and casualties have grown as these sticking points left negotiators in a loop for months.
Why does Biden support this plan?
“Biden, in his own words, is hugely empathetic with the state of Israel, genuinely believes in the righteousness, in his words, of the mission to prevent Hamas from conducting another October 7th again,” said El-Gamal. During that attack, Hamas killed 1,200 people.
El-Gamal also said that Biden sees that attack as similar to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the U.S.
“He sees that same kind of fight against terrorism that the U.S. has experienced in what Israel is doing right now, and that’s why he’s been so supportive,” along with the U.S.’ longstanding allyship with Israel.
During a press call regarding Biden’s remarks on the ceasefire plan, senior administration officials explained a bit more about his faith in the proposal.
“For the Palestinian people and the people of Gaza, this is an opportunity to end the suffering of the past eight months,” said an official. “Again, as the President said, too many innocent people have been killed in this war. And the deal now on the table offers a roadmap to end the suffering for the hostage families waiting for their loved ones to return and for the people of Gaza caught in this terrible war that Hamas started.”
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war so far, per Gaza Ministry of Health statistics. A significant number of civilians have been killed or injured, and the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire.
As the war has dragged on, criticism of Israel’s approach, the continued civilian deaths and how Biden has handled the war have increased. In the U.S., protests have popped up at college campuses across the country. The International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice has even sought arrest warrants against key players in the war, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an action that Biden has denounced.
“I know this is a subject on which people in this country feel deep, passionate conviction. And so do I. It’s been one of the hardest, most complicated, problems in the world,” said Biden. “There’s nothing easy about this. Nothing easy about it. Through it all, the United States has worked relentlessly to support Israeli security, to get humanitarian supplies to Gaza, and to get a ceasefire and hostage deal to bring this war to an end.”
What does the plan mean for civilians in Gaza?
During a conversation Saturday with Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed “the roadmap’s benefits for the people of Gaza, including through an influx of humanitarian aid, the return of displaced civilians to North Gaza, and the start of reconstruction efforts.”
In another conservation with Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Blinken disucssed “durable peace in Gaza.”
Previously, Blinken discussed the possibility of “ending this conflict on the basis of two-state solution and the international legitimacy,” with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. That was not mentioned in the Israel ceasefire plan Biden shared. Last month, three European countries recognized Palestinian statehood.
What would this plan mean for the war?
According to a senior Biden administration official, “the President’s message was clear. There is now a roadmap in place to do all of this after months of diplomacy that he has led together with his negotiators and Israel, Qatar, and Egypt.”
Blinken also underlined support from those countries in a series of press statements Saturday.
“He called for Hamas to accept the deal without delay, underscoring the benefits the deal would provide to the Palestinian people,” said the statement about his meeting with Egypt’s Shoukry.
With the deal, Biden hopes for an end to the war, lasting security for Israel and a return of hostages. Officials said the proposal was accepted by Israel and transmitted to Hamas Thursday.
“This is…a decisive moment. Israel has made their [offer]. Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. [And] this deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it,” said Biden.
As things stand this week, officials also said that “Israel has so degraded Hamas’s forces over the last eight months,” that “Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another October 7,” since its military capacity is eroded and its leaders are in hiding.
CNN reported Saturday that some comments from Netanyahu have raised questions about the proposal Biden announced.
The Israeli leader said this in a Saturday X post: “I am thrilled by the privilege to represent Israel before both houses of Congress and to present the truth about our just war against those seeking our lives to the representatives of the American people and the entire world,” regarding a letter sent by U.S.
politicians.
What does the plan mean for Americans?
“The longer this war drags on, the more of a liability it is for President Biden because he's losing votes on both sides of the issue,” said El-Gamal. “The pro-Palestinian side is vowing not to vote for him. And because he’ been slightly tougher with Israel over the last few weeks, even going so far as to pause a weapons shipment to them. Now he’s starting to lose some of the pro-Israel side as well.”
In the wake of former President Donald Trump (the presumptive GOP candidate for the 2024 presidential election) getting convicted by a jury on 34 felony counts this week, Biden has pulled slightly ahead at the polls, according to data compiled by FiveThityEight.
Four bipartisan U.S. lawmakers – Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) – outlined their thoughts on the importance of Israel in their Friday letter to Netanyahu.
“The existential challenges we face, including the growing partnership between Iran, Russia and China, threaten the security, peace and prosperity of our countries and of free people around the world. To build on our enduring relationship, and to highlight America’s solidarity with Israel, we invite you to share the Israeli government’s vision for defending democracy, combatting terror, and establishing a just and lasting peace in the region,” they said.