A new poll released by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California revealed that a majority of likely voters are against removing Gov. Gavin Newsom from office. The poll also showed voters are increasingly concerned about the results of the Sept. 14 recall election.
The poll surveyed 1,706 California residents over a nine-day period at the end of August. The pollsters found that 58 percent of likely voters oppose ousting Newsom while 39 percent support the recall.
Mark Baldassare, the institute’s president, told KNX the poll showed a strong partisan split among respondents' views of the governor.
"Overwhelmingly, Democrats, 90 percent now, say that they would vote ‘no’ on the recall while 82 percent of Republicans say they would vote ‘yes.’ Independents [are] divided with more saying they would vote ‘no’ than ‘yes’ by a 49 to 44 margin," he said.
Figures from Political Data Inc. showed more than 5 million mail-in ballots have already been returned, mostly from Democrats. And if Public Policy Insistute’s poll accurately reflects likely Democratic voters’ opinion on the recall, that’s good news for Newsom.
“What we’re looking for is ‘Are Democrats voting?’ and, indeed, they are. Democratic returns are outpacing Republican returns by a pretty substantial margin,” political analyst Rob Korinke told KNX.
A July poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed a smaller margin of support for Newsom. It found that while 50 percent oppose the recall election, nearly the same amount of voters, 47 percent, support the effort.
However, the new poll from Public Policy Institute also found that around half of likely voters do not like any of the 46 replacement candidates, which may be connected to growing support for keeping Newsom in office.
Conservative talk radio personality Larry Elder has emerged as a frontrunner among the GOP challengers since he entering the race to challenge Newsom, and his fundraising has increased along with his support. Politico reported Elder collected nearly $4.5 million in July, and an additional $440,000 at the beginning of August.
But Elder has faced criticism for his extreme views, such as opposing vaccine and mask mandates, a stated desire to abolish the minimum wage and saying that women know less than men in political issues.
Baldassare told the Los Angeles Times that Democratic voters are increasingly fearful of who could replace Newsom if the recall succeeds.
“Democrats have heard messages about the roots of this recall and what would happen with COVID and other things if Newsom is removed,” Baldassare told the Times. “It hasn’t moved Republican voters or independent voters much, but has had an impact on Democratic voters.”
The deadline to vote is Sept. 14 when polling places will also be open.
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