A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 5 percentage points in the race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat, the largest lead Talarico has posted in public surveys during the general election period.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,048 likely voters, conducted July 15-17, found Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%, with 14% still undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The results mark a shift from earlier polls that showed the contest essentially tied after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May Republican runoff. TPOR’s previous survey in late May had Talarico ahead 47% to 44%.
Talarico performed strongly among independents, leading 43% to 23%, and among self-described moderates, 54% to 20%. Notably, the Democrat also led among voters without a college degree, 45% to 36% — a group that has reliably favored Republicans in recent Texas elections.
Paxton maintained a solid advantage among white voters, while Talarico held large leads with Black and Latino voters. The poll’s sample leaned slightly more Democratic than the 2024 Texas electorate.
TPOR describes itself as a nonpartisan research group. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford. Some conservatives have questioned the poll’s methodology because of those ties.
The race is considered one of the most competitive and expensive Senate contests in the country. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently rates the seat as Lean Republican.
Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19.
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