Thunderstorms moving across North Texas Thursday brought the second round of severe weather to the area this month. Severe weather is possible any time of year in Texas, but the peak of tornado season typically begins in April.
"We've had a fairly robust headstart to the season," said Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, a professor at Texas A&M University. "There's been quite a bit of tornadic activity already in Texas and Oklahoma."
March 2, severe weather caused damage starting in Weatherford and moving east across the Metroplex to southern Dallas.
The Climate Prediction Center said March 9 La Nina had ended, but Nielsen-Gammon says its effects could still have an impact on early spring weather.
"We still sort of have the lingering effects of La Nina which tends to enhance the spring-time winds and make severe weather more likely," he said.
After the storms Thursday, dry weather is forecast through the weekend with only a chance of showers next week. No additional severe weather is expected in the near-term.
"We typically have several rough severe weather days in any given year. Looks like one's coming up today, but for the most part, it looks like we're actually going to be entering a relatively cool period, which would put a damper on severe weather temporarily," Nielsen-Gammon said.
The National Weather Service said DFW Airport has received 6.7 inches of rain since the beginning of 2023, .21 inches less than normal but 2.39 inches more than the same period last year.
Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor said most of North Texas was not in drought. Western Tarrant County, southern Wise County and all of Parker County were listed as "abnormally dry." Areas to the west and south were in more severe stages of drought.
In the map released Thursday, an area around San Antonio was in the most severe stage of drought. Central Texas was forecast to receive strong to severe thunderstorms later Thursday night.
With the possibility of severe weather, Nielsen-Gammon says storms could help improve drought conditions, but a storm does not guarantee any one location will receive much rain. Unlike a hurricane, where heavy rain falls over a wide area, a thunderstorm may drop heavy rain in one area while a spot nearby only has strong winds.
"There's a lot more randomness about it," he said. "You could have lots of rain and not much severe weather. Or you could have not much rain but lots of supercells."
The storms may also cause flash flooding with heavy rain falling one area in a short amount of time. Nielsen-Gammon said, since soil cannot soak up so much rain immediately, more of the rain will run off into streams and ultimately reservoirs.
"Much of North and Central Texas gets their water from reservoirs, so in that sense, run-off is a good thing for the water supply," he said.
But Nielsen-Gammon said run-off has less benefit for farms. He said crop development benefits from lighter rain that can soak into the ground.
"The ideal is to have a decent amount of rain spread out over a long time so the ground gets saturated and then you get run-off," he said. "But any rain is going to help in some fashion."
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