With polls open across Texas today until 7 p.m., prediction market platform Kalshi has turned the state's most competitive primaries into live, tradeable contracts - and traders are projecting dramatic outcomes up and down the ballot.
Kalshi's market data shows traders assigning Ken Paxton an 81% probability of securing the Republican Senate nomination, a 63-point lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, with about $2.2 million wagered on that market alone. On the Democratic side, traders give state Rep. James Talarico a 75% chance of winning over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, with more than $5.2 million in total trading volume.
Beyond the Senate, Kalshi markets are active across multiple statewide races. In the Republican attorney general primary — opened up by Paxton's Senate bid — the most likely outcome is U.S. Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton advancing to a runoff. The Kalshi screenshot shows Roy currently trading at 85% to win the GOP AG nomination, with Middleton at 32%, suggesting traders see Roy as the frontrunner but a runoff as probable.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is seeking a fourth term and faces three primary challengers, though he is expected to have little trouble winning renomination. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Vikki Goodwin is the best-known challenger in that primary.
Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term and faces multiple Republican primary challengers. The Democratic gubernatorial primary includes state Rep. Gina Hinojosa among its leading contenders.
Kalshi markets also show traders placing a 57% probability that Democratic primary turnout statewide will exceed 2.7 million votes - a sign of notable enthusiasm on the left. If Democrats truly are to have a shot at turning Texas competitive in 2026, off-the-charts primary mobilization may be a necessary, though not sufficient, start.
So what is Kalshi, and is it legal? Kalshi is a federally regulated platform overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Following a landmark legal victory in 2024, it became the first U.S. platform to offer fully legal, regulated election trading to American citizens at the federal level. Contracts work like a binary market: buy a YES share at the listed odds, collect $1 if correct, or lose what you paid if wrong. Prices shift in real time as news, polls, and results flow in.
Kalshi has also struck a deal with the Associated Press to license live vote count data and race calls, making it one of the few places where traders can watch election results and trade simultaneously.
Prediction market odds are not formal forecasts and do not guarantee outcomes. Trading on Kalshi involves financial risk. Results from today's primaries are expected after 7 p.m., with KRLD covering any races headed to the May 26 runoff.
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