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More COVID-19 infections are inevitable as people again start gathering, but how prepared communities are to stamp out those sparks will determine how bad the rebound is, Fauci told the Senate Health, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Fauci, as well as three other top U.S. health officials, testified before the U.S. Senate committee Tuesday to discuss the coronavirus response and ways to get people back to work safely.
Before the hearing, Fauci, in an email to a New York Times reporter, shared a dire warning of “needless suffering and death.” He said he is concerned states will skip over checkpoints outlined in the White House’s three-phase plan as they lift restrictions on citizens and businesses meant to slow the spread of the virus.
“And prematurely open up without having the capability of being able to respond effectively and efficiently,” he added. “My concern is that we will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks.”
Federal guidelines call for a downward trajectory of positive cases for two weeks, along with widespread testing and contact tracing, before a given geographical area can move forward.
Fauci warned if criteria are not met and restrictions are lifted too soon, there may be several coronavirus outbreaks and a big setback to the country's attempts to restore normalcy.
Fauci noted coronavirus cases are likely to pop up even in places that follow the guidelines closely.
As for a vaccine, he said several are in the works, and they could find out how successful any of them are by “late fall or early winter,” which would be ahead of the 12- to 18-month timeline he suggested earlier this year.
“There are at least eight candidate COVID-19 vaccines in clinical development. The (National Institutes of Health) has been collaborating with a number of pharmaceutical companies at various stages of development,” he said.
“We have many candidates and hope to have many winners,” he continued. “In other words, (there are) many shots on goal.”
Despite the rapid pace of work on vaccines, Fauci offered no guarantees. He said, “The big unknown is efficacy.”
Still, Fauci said a second wave of the virus is possible this fall.
“Even if we get better control over the months, it is likely there will be a virus somewhere on this planet that will eventually get back to us,” he said.
Fauci, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield, Assistant Secretary for Health with the Department of Health and Human Services ADM Brett Giroir, and FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn answered senators’ questions remotely by video. Fauci, Redfield and Hahn are currently self-quarantined because of exposure to someone who tested positive for the virus.
Fauci’s testimony comes as President Donald Trump praises states that are reopening after the prolonged lockdown aimed at controlling the virus' spread.
With the U.S. economy in free-fall and more than 30 million people unemployed, Trump has been pressuring states to reopen.
Eyeing the November elections, Trump has been eager to restart the economy, urging on protesters who oppose their state governors’ stay-at-home orders and expressing his own confidence that the coronavirus will fade away as summer advances and Americans return to work and other pursuits.
A recent Associated Press review determined that 17 states did not meet a key White House benchmark for loosening restrictions — a 14-day downward trajectory in new cases or positive test rates. Yet many of those have begun to reopen or are about to do so, including Alabama, Kentucky, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah.
Of the 33 states that have had a 14-day downward trajectory of either cases or positive test rates, 25 are partially opened or moving to reopen within days, the AP analysis found. Other states that have not seen a 14-day decline, remain closed despite meeting some benchmarks.
The U.S. has seen at least 1.3 million infections and nearly 81,000 confirmed deaths from the virus, the highest toll in the world by far, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
Worldwide, the virus has infected nearly 4.2 million people and killed over 287,000 — more than 80,000 in the U.S. alone. Asked if the U.S. mortality count was correct, Fauci said, “the number is likely higher. I don’t know exactly what percent is higher but almost certainly it’s higher.”
Separately, one expert from the World Health Organization has already warned that some countries are “driving blind” into reopening their economies without having strong systems to track new outbreaks. And three countries that do have robust tracing systems — South Korea, Germany and China — have already seen new outbreaks after lockdown rules were relaxed.
WHO's emergencies chief, Dr. Michael Ryan, said Germany and South Korea have good contact tracing that hopefully can detect and stop virus clusters before they get out of control. But he said other nations — which he did not name — have not effectively employed investigators to contact people who test positive, track down their contacts and get them into quarantine before they can spread the virus.
“Shutting your eyes and trying to drive through this blind is about as silly an equation as I’ve seen,” Ryan said. “Certain countries are setting themselves up for some seriously blind driving over the next few months.”