PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — The Major League Baseball Draft becomes a tough science for the sport’s general managers and scouts, because it’s hard to project how teenagers and college students will pan out professionally.
But if history has shown anything, it’s very important to the Philadelphia Phillies.
Since the MLB Draft began in 1965, the Phillies don't have the best history of selecting and developing homegrown talent. The two times they did eventually turned them into World Series championships.
Of the 1980 world champion Phillies’ eight starting position players and top five starting pitchers, the Phils drafted seven of them. The 2008 world champion Phils drafted nine players within that core of 13 starters.
The Phillies drafted only four current starting pitchers or position players (Alec Bohm, Kyle Gibson, Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola).
Getting these picks right, especially the first rounders, is critical.
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Phillies Director of Amateur Scouting Brian Barber is entering his third draft with the franchise.
The first two drafts brought high school pitchers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter in the first round. Both are developing in the minor leagues, with Painter having a very impressive season for the Class A Clearwater Threshers and High-A Jersey Shore BlueClaws.
Painter, their 2021 first-round pick, is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 12 appearances entering Thursday night. Abel, the Phillies’ 2020 first-round selection, is also with the BlueClaws, and has a 5-7 record with a 4.23 ERA in 14 games so far this season.
Barber said this year’s draft is heavy with position players at the top, with really good pitching in the deeper rounds. The Phillies have the 17th overall pick in the first round, no second-round pick because of the Nick Castellanos signing, and picks 93 in the third round and 122 in the fourth round.
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Painter and Abel were high school students when they were drafted, so their path to the big leagues will probably take a little longer due to their age.
The Phillies drafted college students in the first round in 2019 with Bryson Stott, 2018 with Bohm, and 2017 with Adam Haseley. All three made it to the big leagues relatively quickly. Bohm and Stott are regular players with the club this season.
How much does Barber factor in fast-tracking a college player to the majors compared to the possibility of greater upside with a high schooler who is not as developed?
“It's definitely a factor, but it's not the ultimate deciding factor,” Barber explained.
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“If you take a high school player [where] you think his path is four or five years to get to the big leagues, versus a college player that you think could possibly be there in the 2024 season, all things being equal, I'll take the guy where the path is shorter and the journey is less. But I wouldn’t go towards a guy that I thought was less talented just because he was going to get there quicker.”
Barber said the journey to get to the major leagues is more of a marathon, not a sprint, and he hopes their picks succeed in the Phillies organization for 10, 15 or 20 years.
“I'm just not going to overly concern myself with whether one guy gets there a year before the other one,” said Barber.
Barber says the current construction of the major league roster doesn’t factor into his decisions, because so many factors can change by the time the pick is ready to get to that level.
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Nonetheless, Sunday night's first round becomes very important, as do Monday and Tuesday in the ensuing rounds.
Not scoring high with top picks can bring incredible regret. For example, the Phillies took Mickey Moniak with the No. 1 overall pick out of high school in the 2016 draft. Moniak has struggled at the major league level.
That draft included All-Stars like the the New York Mets’ Pete Alonso, the Toronto Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette, the Milwaukee Brewers’ current Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes and the Cleveland Guardians’ Shane Bieber.
It’s very important these picks turn into impactful, All-Star-caliber players.