Midterm races in Pa. could determine control of Congress

BENSALEM, Pa. (KYW Newsradio) — Tuesday is Election Day, and key midterm races in Pennsylvania could determine who controls Congress.

The big local contest is in purple Bucks County, where Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick — the only Republican member of Congress in the greater Philadelphia region — is seeking his sixth term. He is facing Democrat Bob Harvie, the two-term county commissioner.

Three other races for U.S. House seats currently held by Republicans are being closely watched for their potential to turn blue.

Democrats need to win three more seats in the midterm elections than they did in 2024 to take back the majority from Republicans.

Conditions have worsened for Republicans seeking office since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term. His approval rating has plunged, and his tariff policy, immigration crackdown, and decision to launch a war in Iran are squeezing Americans’ finances and threatening to alienate his supporters.

In the three key Pennsylvania districts — the 7th, 8th and 10th — Trump outperformed the Republican House winners in the 2024 election, a warning sign that without his name on the ballot, the incumbents seeking reelection may struggle to get the Republican turnout necessary to stay in office.

In 2024, Trump won the 7th Congressional District, in the Lehigh Valley, by a margin of just 3 percentage points. Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is running for a second term, and Democrat Bob Brooks, a former firefighter and union leader, are now facing off in the district. In the 2024 election, Mackenzie ousted the Democratic incumbent, Susan Wild, winning the election by one percentage point.

Brooks and Mackenzie had raised nearly the same amounts — about $5.3 million each — as of mid-October. Outside groups have poured millions more into the race.

The race in the 8th Congressional District, in the state’s northeast, is also being closely watched. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, the Republican incumbent, is facing off against Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton. Bresnahan flipped the seat in 2024, winning by about 2 percentage points. Trump won the same district by a much more comfortable margin of nearly 9 points.

Cognetti has made eradicating corruption central to her campaign and attacked her opponent's past congressional stock trades. Bresnahan has campaigned on lowering taxes and costs and increasing border security.

The 10th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is in the south-central part of the state, and includes Harrisburg, the state capital. Scott Perry, the far-right Republican incumbent endorsed by Trump, is up for a rematch of the 2024 election against Democrat Janelle Stelson. In that election, Perry won by just over 1 percentage point, while Trump won the district by a larger margin of over 5 percentage points.

Some Republicans have been highlighting their differences with the president to appeal to alienated voters, but this may be harder for Perry, a former Freedom Caucus chair who has aligned himself with the president for years. Perry was involved in Trump’s attempt to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election, which Trump lost. Perry was not charged with a crime, but his cellphone was seized as part of the FBI’s investigation into the matter.

Stelson, a former television news anchor, has campaigned as a moderate alternative to Perry, pitching herself as a candidate with a bipartisan focus committed to reducing the cost of living.

Democrats seek control in Harrisburg

In the governor's race, Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro is seeking a second term. He faces Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity, but polls suggest he's ahead of his opponent by more than 20 points.

Democrats are trying to flip at least three seats in the Pennsylvania Senate to win a trifecta in Harrisburg. Control of the state House is also on the line. Democrats currently hold a majority.

Republicans currently control the state Senate.

If Democrats win, it would be the first time they controlled both chambers and the governor’s office in three decades.

There hasn’t been any kind of trifecta in Pennsylvania since Republican Tom Corbett lost his gubernatorial reelection bid in 2014.

New Jersey races to watch

More than 1 million votes have already been cast in New Jersey so far through mail and early in-person voting, with Democrats accounting for about 57%.

Democratic Sen. Cory Booker is likely to cruise to victory over Republican challenger Justin Murphy.

Meanwhile, two congressional districts are projected to flip from red to blue.

Incumbent Congressman Tom Kean Jr. in the 7th District is now seen as the underdog by many observers in his battle against challenger Rebecca Bennett.

And, incumbent Congressman Jeff Van Drew is seeing his strongest challenge yet in the 2nd District from Democrat Zack Mullock, the mayor of Cape May.

When do polls close?

Polls close at 8 p.m. in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Mail ballots must be in a dropbox or election office by 8 p.m. Tuesday. It’s too late to actually mail them in.

And because of state law, mail ballots can’t begin to be counted until 7 a.m., so it will take some time to get the results.

Election hotline

Lauren Cristella, president and CEO of the Committee of Seventy, reminded voters that if they have issues or notice something wrong, they can do something about it.

“If anyone is concerned, feels intimidated, sees something concerning at a polling place, do not hesitate to call 866-OUR-VOTE,” she said.

That national hotline will connect voters to local election attorneys and experts. The U.S. Department of Justice said they would send federal election monitors to Philly and three other counties; they’re not allowed to speak with voters or address anything themselves.