PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — Eyes across the globe are still on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But even with thousands of troops still stationed along the Russia-Ukraine border, some local political science experts aren't convinced an invasion will happen.
Experts say this all comes down to Russia wanting to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO or the European Union.
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"It wants to, basically, have a say in all European security matters, and it is cut out in the current structure,” says Mitchell A. Orenstein, a professor of Russian and Eastern European studies at the University of Pennsylvania.
"This is like a big shakedown operation. We're going to come in, and we're going to scare everybody half to death. And then we're going to see what we can get from that.”
Orenstein says he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin sees how Ukraine operates as a country and it could be making him nervous. Political experts say since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, Ukrainians haven't supported their neighboring country.
"If Ukraine can do it, Russia can do it. If Ukraine can be a democracy, Russia can be a democracy. And therefore, what is the future for Putin and his dictatorial regime?" Orenstein said.
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But at the end of the day, neither Orenstein nor Rutgers University political science professor Wojtek Wolfe foresees a full-scale war.
"It's like a really bad relationship, and you're watching it kind of come apart and going, 'I really hope this doesn't go any further.' But it could," Wolfe said.
President Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to a meeting with Putin, as long as Russia holds off on an invasion. Plans for the meeting are not expected to be laid out until Thursday during a meeting between Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Russian front-line commanders have been told to prepare to roll into Ukraine, and the U.S. says Russia is drawing up a list of Ukrainians to kill or detain after a military occupation, according to ABC News correspondent Aaron Katersky.
The White House press secretary says that the administration has been clear that the U.S. is "committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins."
This latest attempt at diplomacy was brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron. His plan includes a broader summit meeting on security and strategic stability in Europe.
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Now, the U.S. and other countries around the world are watching to see what will happen, and what the ripple effect could be. Looking ahead, Wolfe says this conflict could help defrost other international issues, while the U.S. will see a continuing rise in oil prices and a potential drop in the stock market.
"Which will take care of inflation,” he said. “But you're looking at multiple quarters of down markets. It's going to affect incomes. It's going to affect jobs. He's getting all the bang for the buck of a war, without actually going to war."
If war is prevented, more sanctions on Russia could be a possibility. Orenstein adds that such a move would not do much to our economy, because the U.S. does not deal with a lot of Russian imports.