PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — State courts, county government and school boards are on Pennsylvania's ballot this year. While those races may not get the headlines that next year's presidential and U.S. Senate races will get, they could give some hints on what to expect in 2024.
Muhlenberg College political science professor and polling director Chris Borick said off-year elections — those held before presidential elections — have historically provided some signs of where voters stand.
In 2019, for example, Democrats won big in the Philadelphia suburbs before winning the White House in 2020. If Republicans were to bounce back with big wins in those counties, it could signal what's to come next year.
"It's not a guarantee if you have a good night in 2023 that you're gonna have a good night in 2024 as a party," Borick noted, "but it gives you some sense that you might have the winds at your back."
This election could show what messages resonate with voters. Democrats have tried to push reproductive rights in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, while Republicans have tried to make school board races about content in school libraries and gender issues.
"If Democrats do really well in judicial races, I think there's going to be a clear signal that this issue remains potent and something that Democrats want to carry in full force in 2024," he inferred. "If we see more conservative-backed school board candidates win, that's going to carry over into next year."
Borick, however, was quick to point to the financial warning that "past performance is not predictive of future events" also holds true in politics.
"What happens in 2023 can give us some of what will happen in '24, but don't go to the bank with it."
