PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — Republicans clearly had a big night on Tuesday across the country, including in Pennsylvania. The result could be a Trump White House paired with Republican control of Congress.
Longtime Republican strategist Aaron Cohen, president of Arena Strategies, says the biggest surprise to him is the low voter turnout in Philadelphia.
“The undervote in Philadelphia is something you cannot overlook,” said Cohen. “President Trump obviously increased, by a little bit, his margin in Philadelphia. But more importantly, it's the overall number.”
Kamala Harris’s margin in Philadelphia over Trump was about 70,000 votes fewer than Joe Biden’s in 2020.
Muhlenberg College political science professor and polling director Chris Borick says, while Harris fell short in Philadelphia, Trump’s success extended well beyond the city’s borders.
“If you look at the state and you say, ‘Well, where did they make gains?’ You'll see it almost everywhere. And sometimes they were pretty small — a point or two — compared to 2020, numbers. But nonetheless, those gains, in a cumulative manner, really add up.”
Borick says elections often come down to external and often cyclical factors like who’s in power and the perception of the direction of the country. Republican messaging up and down the ballot was consistent and on point, tying Democrats and Harris to the economy, inflation, the border and overall safety.
“I think you have to give credit to Republicans in this cycle for largely staying on message, for the advantages they had. That's part of a good campaign,” Borick said
Further, says Cohen, Harris was unable to separate herself from the Biden administration.
“You know, people's general feeling of the future and optimism of the country, were all going in the wrong direction for the incumbent party. And as hard as the vice president tried to not be the incumbent party, she's the sitting vice president. And so therefore there's a very difficult tightrope to walk.”
Cohen says Harris’s message effectively ended up being “I’m not Donald Trump.”
Strong chance of a Trump-friendly Congress
The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania may end up being the closest in the nation, said CBS News congressional correspondent Scott MacFarlane, speaking Wednesday on KYW Newsradio. It's too early to project whether Dave McCormick has ousted Bob Casey, or whether Bob Casey has won a fourth term.
“But it's not just the Senate. The U.S. House produced three particularly close races in Pennsylvania, all of which ended up being big wins for Republicans,” MacFarlane said.
They protected the Harrisburg-area seat of Scott Perry, an incumbent who Democrats had sights on and nearly ousted, he said. “And they pulled upsets in Pennsylvania's seventh and eighth districts — that's Allentown and Scranton — where they appear to have ousted Democrats there, helping to net two seats in Pennsylvania, which gives Republicans a very strong likelihood of taking and keeping the U.S. House majority, too.”
MacFarlane notes it's an interesting situation for President-elect Donald Trump to come into the White House again with Republican control of both houses of Congress.
“And the margins are important, too. Trump having a Republican Senate really greases the wheels for him to get his cabinet confirmed — whoever he likes — getting Supreme Court nominees confirmed,” he said.
“But the numbers are important here. As of now, CBS News projects 52 Republican U.S. Senate seats, with a few still too close to call. That gets up to 53, 54, 55 — each one of those ticks up the register gives Trump more leverage, more currency to carry, and more wiggle room to get the more controversial things through the U.S. Senate.”