Doctors could soon have their work cut out for them, as a recent report has found the number of cardiovascular deaths from extreme heat could possibly triple by the middle of the century.
The study, published on Monday in the American Heart Association journal Circulation, suggests that heart attacks and strokes could increase due to climate change. Researchers say that unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, things could get deadly.
“Climate change and its many manifestations will play an increasingly important role on the health of communities around the world in the coming decades,” Dr. Sameed Khatana, the study’s lead author, said in a press release.
Khatana, who is an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, shared that climate change also plays a role in health equity, as it will “impact certain individuals and populations to a disproportionate degree and may exacerbate pre-existing health disparities in the U.S.”
From 2008 to 2019, extreme heat, or a maximum heat index of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, was associated with 1,651 excess cardiovascular deaths, according to the study.
Researchers say that by the year 2050, that number could jump to as high as 4,320 excess deaths if proposed policies to stop climate change are implemented. If they aren’t and only little action is taken, the number could climb to 5,491 excess deaths.
Khatana says that because of this, the policies put in place now will drastically affect the number of people who are killed by extreme heat.
Pre-existing health disparities will also be exacerbated by extreme heat, according to the research.
The study projects that an increase in heat-related cardiovascular deaths is projected to be up to 3.5 times greater in people 65 and older compared to younger adults.
Khatana said that social isolation experienced primarily by older adults has previously been linked to a higher chance of death from extreme heat.
For Black adults, that number could be up to 4.6 times greater than it is for their white adult counterparts.
Khatana says that previous studies have looked into this, and they suggest that Black residents “may have less access to air conditioning; less tree cover; and a higher degree of the ‘urban heat island effect’ – built-up areas having a greater increase in temperature than surrounding less-developed areas.”
While the study brings a warning of what may come, Dr. Robert Brook, the executive director of cardiovascular prevention at Wayne State University School of Medicine in Detroit, shared in a release that the projections are likely “conservative,” as the research did not include nonfatal heart attacks, strokes, and heart failure.
Brook says these may also be linked to extreme heat days, and therefore, the projections in the study, which he was not involved with, could be lowballing what is to come.
“The full extent of the public health threat, even just due to cardiovascular death, is likely much greater than presented in the study,” Brook said.