If an impending bacon shortage in California wasn't enough, a drought leaving the state high and dry could have nationwide consequences when it comes to the price of almond-based products.
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A historic drought across the U.S. West is taking a heavy toll on California's $6 billion almond industry, which produces almost all of the world's almonds, according to the Associated Press. As water becomes scarce, more growers are expected to abandon their orchards.
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It's simple supply and demand. Less almond production means products made from the nuts will rise in price as manufacturers try to recoup costs from a shortened supply. That means grocery bills for everything from almond butter to almond milk could increase.
Nearly all of the almonds consumed in the U.S., and 80% of the world's supply, are grown in California, according to the Almond Board of California. The state produced a record 3.1 billion pounds in 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency initially expected California farmers to produce 3.2 billion pounds of almonds this year, but have dropped that prediction down 10% to 2.8 billion pounds.
Almond trees are very thirsty and require a lot of water to produce a bountiful harvest -- a ridiculous amount of water. To grow one almond requires 1.1 gallons of water, according to the Pennsylvania Earth Science Teachers Association. To grow a pound takes 1,900 gallons. Of course, all crops need water to grow. But because demand for almonds is so high -- not just here in the U.S. but overseas as well -- and the industry is so profitable, the amount of water that California uses to produce the crop is exceptionally important. But those critical water resources are drying up.
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Farmers across the state implement the latest technology and irrigation practices to optimize the use of water. But that has little effect when the state is dealing with scorching temperatures in the midst of a water shortage. Nearly 90% of California is in a state of "extreme drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
"A lot of growers are having to go through a stressful time to make the water they have last to keep their trees alive," said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California, told the AP.
In early August, the State Water Resources Control Board voted to ban farmers from pulling water from main rivers and streams of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed -- which covers nearly the entire Central Valley region where most of the state's almond farms are located.
With their plants shriveling up, growers are resorting to uprooting part of their farms so water can be allocated to a smaller portion of their crop. Many of the trees that remain are expected to produce smaller nuts, which also diminishes the final yield. By cutting their harvest, the demand is now exceeding what some farmers can produce. That means a smaller supply for consumers and loss of revenue for growers.
"The profitability of growing almonds is not the same as it was in the past," Jim Jasper, owner of Stewart & Jasper Orchards, told the AP. "The world is going to start to see less almonds."
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