Congratulations, hockey fans. You survived the offseason – and the Great Swayman Standoff – and made it to opening night. The Bruins begin their regular season Tuesday night (as long as Hurricane Milton doesn’t ruin it) with a marquee matchup, facing the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers as they raise their new banner.
We here at The Skate Podcast previewed the season in-depth in the episode right above this paragraph, and included a few bold predictions from me and my co-hosts, Bridgette Proulx and Brian DeFelice. I wanted to expand on that, so here are 10 bold predictions that I actually believe.
1. Jeremy Swayman wins the Vezina
It took longer than expected, but Swayman finally has his new contract and can now take his place as the Bruins’ franchise goalie of the present and future. That job and the $66 million in his bank account bring high expectations, and the bet here is that he meets them and makes the jump to the truly elite class of NHL netminders.
Among qualifying goalies, Swayman already ranked third in goals saved above expected last season, according to MoneyPuck. He finished seventh in Vezina Trophy voting, hurt by the fact that he split starts with Linus Ullmark instead of playing 55-60 games like other true No. 1 goalies. Swayman proved he had plenty more in the tank in the postseason, when he was the best player league-wide through the first two rounds and wound up leading the playoff field in goals saved above expected.
Linus Ullmark is now gone, and so too is the rotation. General manager Don Sweeney has referenced multiple times that both goalies wanted to play 55 games, and it sounds like that’s what the Bruins plan to give Swayman. If he can do what he’s done the last two seasons (.918 save percentage, 2.41 goals-against average) in a bigger role, he’ll be right there in the Vezina race. I also happen to think the Winnipeg Jets are going to take a sizable step back this season, which could hurt reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck and open up this field a bit.
2. David Pastrnak sets a career high in points
After recording a career-high 113 points during the Bruins’ record-setting 2022-23 season, Pastrnak followed up with 110 points last year despite no longer having either of the centers he had spent his entire career playing with (Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci).
It is actually kind of crazy how much heavy lifting Pastrnak had to do offensively last season. No other Bruin had more than 67 points (Brad Marchand), and only three other Bruins topped 50 points (Marchand, Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha). He also had to shift into more of a playmaker role rather than always being the finisher, especially on the power play, and didn’t miss a beat.
This season, Pastrnak should have more help thanks to the arrival of Elias Lindholm, his new center. Lindholm’s defensive ability should help kill plays and get Boston’s top line going on the attack more. Pavel Zacha, someone Pastrnak already has chemistry with, should also be freed up more as he shifts back to wing after being a full-time center last year. If the Bruins can also get their power play humming after a second-half downturn last year, it becomes really easy to imagine Pastrnak hitting 115 or 120 points.
3. Elias Lindholm gets close to his
The Bruins’ new No. 1 center had a career-high 82 points in 2021-22 while playing on a line with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary. Then he dropped down to 64 points in 2022-23 before cratering to just 44 last season.
Lindholm is now going to be on the best line he’s been on since that 2021-22 campaign, though. A significant bounce-back is expected, and playing with Pastrnak should help him deliver. Lindholm’s passing ability and knack for finding soft spots in high-danger areas should mesh well with a dual threat of Pastrnak’s caliber. Maybe Lindholm isn’t quite the kind of center who can drive a first line himself, but he doesn’t have to do that in Boston.
I can’t quite predict Lindholm to top those 82 points from a few years ago, but I think he’ll get close. Finishing in the 70s should be within reach.
4. Morgan Geekie tops 50 points
In his first season in Boston, Geekie blew past his career highs in goals and points with 17 and 39, up from his previous marks of 9 and 28. He had felt under-utilized as a fourth-liner in Carolina and Seattle, and proved last year that he was fully capable of being a good third-liner who could occasionally move up to the top six.
Geekie, who turned 26 over the summer, is going to get a chance right out of the gate to show that he can still do more offensively. He’ll be the second-line right wing Tuesday night alongside Coyle and Marchand, a job he targeted going into camp and one he believes he can handle.
“I think I can add more offensively,” Geekie said last week. “I think I’ve taken steps every year to improve my numbers and produce, but a little bit defensively will help too. Obviously playing with Marchy and Coyle, you get a little bit harder matchups, so being able to play on both sides of the puck. But I think I have a good shot, so being able to get that off a little bit more and get in good spots to create and put those opportunities in the back of the net.”
Marchand believes in his new linemate, too.
“I love playing with Geeks,” Marchand said earlier in training camp. “He’s so great in some of the different areas, the way he can hold onto pucks and makes plays. Shoots it. Great in the corners. I think he really complements our line as well. … I’ve always really liked his game.”
Geekie made an 11-point jump last year. Maybe I’m just drinking the Kool-Aid here, but another 11-point jump up to 50 doesn’t seem *too* crazy, especially if he sticks on the second line for a while.
5. Justin Brazeau scores 20 goals
Brazeau seemingly came out of nowhere last year, starting the season on an AHL-only contract before earning an NHL deal and call-up, scoring five goals in 19 regular-season games, and becoming a lineup regular by the playoffs. The 26-year-old winger now opens this season as a regular, lining up as third-line right wing on opening night after scoring two goals in two preseason games.
Just some quick math here, but five goals in 19 games would be an 82-game pace of 22 goals. Given how often Brazeau gets himself to scoring areas, how surprisingly soft his hands are, and the fact that he’s going to get some power-play time, 20 goals is seemingly within reach, even if it sounds a bit ambitious on the surface.
6. Mason Lohrei replaces Charlie McAvoy as PP1 QB
McAvoy will start the season as the quarterback on the Bruins’ top power-play unit, the same role he has occupied since Torey Krug left in 2020. Lohrei, now a full-time NHLer for the first time, will run the second unit.
Don’t be surprised if that flips at some point. Running the power play is maybe the one part of McAvoy’s game that he hasn’t quite mastered yet, as he is still a little too hesitant and indecisive with the puck on his stick at times. Lohrei might still have a ways to go to master other parts of the game, but there’s no doubt he is offensively gifted, with the shot, passing and escapability that could make him a real power-play threat.
It would be a tough switch for Jim Montgomery to make, and it would require some pride-swallowing from McAvoy, but if it turns out that Lohrei is just the better power-play QB? At some point you would have to do what’s best for the team, right?
7. We barely see Fabian Lysell
This probably isn’t that bold, but whatever. I think the Bruins’ 2021 first-round pick will make his NHL debut at some point this season, but I’m skeptical that he sticks around and becomes a regular, impact player.
Lysell’s training camp felt too similar to his pro career overall: Flashes of brilliance, but not enough consistency. Lysell started slow, had a bad first preseason game, bounced back with a great second game and pretty good third game, but then finished with two more quiet outings.
I hope I’m wrong on this one, because Lysell really is an exciting player to watch when he’s on his game and could bring some offensive skill that this Bruins lineup could use. But this is a “need to see it – consistently – to believe it” situation at this point.
8. The Bruins lead the NHL in hits
Believe it or not, the Bruins already ranked third in hits last season, behind only the Panthers and Maple Leafs. Then they went out and added big, physical players like Nikita Zadorov, Mark Kastelic and Max Jones this offseason while putting an emphasis on forechecking harder and playing more physical defense. They would only need to make up a little over one hit per game on the Panthers, who lost a couple of their more physical depth forwards.
9. The Bruins will have a worse record than last season
The Bruins’ 109 points last season were a big step back from their record-setting 135 the year before, but 109 was still good for sixth-most in the NHL and a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division. Having the best goalie tandem in the league was a regular-season cheat code, as they were the only team that got to roll out one of the five or six best goalies in the world every single night.
This prediction is entirely about the Bruins not getting to do that anymore. As we covered earlier, I think Swayman is going to be great this season. But in the 25-30 games that Joonas Korpisalo starts, I think the Bruins will get roughly league-average goaltending. Korpisalo was one of the worst goalies in the NHL last season, and was also not good in two of the previous three seasons before that. Even if you believe in goalie coach Bob Essensa (I do) and think Korpisalo will be better than he was in Ottawa (I do), there might still be a limit on just how much Boston’s new backup improves.
That alone could cost the Bruins some points they would have gotten the last few regular seasons. I’m not predicting a huge drop-off and still think they will comfortably make the playoffs, but maybe it’s something more like 103 points instead of 109.
10. But they’ll go further in the playoffs
And this is why I don’t really care about a few dropped points in the regular season. Even if the Bruins do have a slightly worse record, I firmly believe this team is better built for the playoffs after their offseason moves. They’re bigger, stronger and more physical. They’ll be harder to play against and they’ll inflict more damage on their opponents. They should be able to both attack and defend “inside ice” better.
Of course, going “further in the playoffs” means getting past the Panthers, the team that has knocked them out the last two years. On paper, you’d still have to favor the Panthers. But I do think the Bruins closed the gap this offseason, and the Panthers’ depth took a hit with some key departures, and Florida has played an awful lot of hockey the last two years with back-to-back Cup Final trips.
The Panthers might be just a little more vulnerable, and the Bruins might be a little more ready to take them down and return to the conference finals for the first time since 2019. To take it a step further, all three of us on The Skate Pod actually picked the Bruins to win the conference. Only Bridgette picked them to win the Cup, though.