The Florida Panthers are back in the Eastern Conference Finals for a third straight year after a dominant 6-1 win in Game 7 Sunday night. The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing the hardest questions yet about their “Core Four” after falling on their face in a big spot once again. Both developments could affect the Boston Bruins.
The biggest and most obvious fallout from a Bruins perspective is this: They are now just about locked into getting a first-round pick out of the Brad Marchand trade.
When general manager Don Sweeney traded Marchand to the rival Panthers on trade deadline day, he was widely criticized for only getting a conditional 2027 second-round pick in return – even with the acknowledgment that Marchand’s injury at the time complicated negotiations.
There were two conditions that could turn that second-round pick into a first-round pick, though, and now one of them has been met: The Panthers won two playoff series.
The second condition – Marchand playing in at least 50% of Florida’s playoff games this spring – is well on its way to being met. Marchand has played all 12 playoff games so far, and he’s been highly productive. After a three-point effort Sunday, Marchand is now tied with linemate Eetu Luostarinen from the team lead in playoff scoring with 12 points (3 goals, 9 assists). He did briefly leave Sunday's game after getting shaken up, but quickly returned. Oh, he is also now 5-0 in his career in Game 7s against Toronto, the most Game 7 wins against one team by any player ever.
The Panthers can play a maximum of 14 games the rest of the way, which would make for a total of 26 playoff games if they do. So, if Marchand just plays one more game, he would be locked in at least 50% played even if he were forced to miss time. As long as he suits up for Game 1 against the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday, it's a done deal.
(UPDATE: Marchand did indeed play in Tuesday's Game 1, so the Bruins are now officially getting a first-round pick.)
The first-round pick is top-10-protected in 2027, meaning the Bruins get it in 2027 unless it's in the top 10. If the Panthers pick in the top 10 in 2027, they can choose to keep the pick and the Bruins would get their 2028 first-round pick instead. The 2028 pick would be unprotected.
As for the Leafs losing, that’s relevant to the Bruins because of the players Toronto may now be moving on from. The “Core Four” of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares have still never reached a conference final, and they’ve only won two playoff series total. Matthews, Nylander and Marner have been there since 2016; Tavares signed in 2018.
Now, it may finally be time to blow things up. Marner and Tavares will become unrestricted free agents on July 1 if they don’t sign extensions before then. Marner, in particular, seems set on hitting the open market after a 102-point season and cashing in with one of the richest contracts in the league – despite another postseason disappointment.
The Bruins need help offensively. They could desperately use a second star up front to ease the pressure on David Pastrnak. Marner could be that player. He’ll be the best offensive player on the market by a wide margin. The playoff questions are real, though, and the Bruins and other potential suitors may be hesitant to fork over $13 million a year or more as a result.
And then there’s Matthew Knies. The 22-year-old left wing broke out with 29 goals and 58 points this season, and he has the size (6-foot-3, 227 pounds), grit and physicality that Marner does not. He is only a restricted free agent, though, and extending him would seemingly be a major offseason priority for the Leafs.
The Bruins, or any other team who wants Knies, would need to blow the Leafs away with an offer sheet that makes it worth letting him go. If the Bruins were to offer Knies between $7.02 million and $9.36 million per year, the Leafs would get a first-round pick, second-round pick and third-round pick if they chose not to match. If the Bruins went even higher into the $9.36 million-to-$11.7 million threshold, it would cost two firsts, a second and a third.
It’s also worth noting that the Leafs are projected to have nearly $27 million in cap space this summer, so they should be able to match just about any offer sheet if they want to – especially if they let Marner and/or Tavares walk in free agency.