Drake Maye made his case for MVP by compiling nearly untouchable stats during his second year in the NFL. He posted a 113.5 passer rating, threw for 4,394 yards, and 31 touchdowns.
So, it’s a bit ironic that what’s powering him through his first playoffs run are the qualities that can’t be accounted for in the record books: his confidence and resilience.
When looking at the numbers through his two playoff games, it’s undeniable that Maye’s mostly trended downward. His completion percentage is 58.9%, compared to the 72% he posted during the regular season. He’s fumbled six times in the postseason, where he fumbled a total of eight times through 17 games. After playing the Chargers and Texans, his playoff passer rating is 93.4.
The defend-Drake-at-any-cost crowd will point to the top-five gauntlet of defenses Maye has faced in his debut voyage to the AFC Championship, and that’s fair – but fair in the same way that Maye’s critics may point out the relative ease of the regular season schedule he faced, as well.
What’s more interesting is how Maye has performed late in these playoff games.
In the fourth quarter, when the snow picked up to a properly plowable level, he took a deep shot to receiver Kayshon Boutte for a 32-yard touchdown that pushed a late-game comeback out of reach for the Houston Texans. The pass came during a game in which Maye fumbled four times and threw an interception.
“If we have time and have a look down field, you know me, I'm going to take a look and take a shot,” Maye said Wednesday, when asked whether he might alter his deep ball approach against the Denver Broncos Sunday.
Similarly, Maye struggled through the first half of the Wild Card game against the Chargers. He jogged into the locker room at halftime with a passer rating of 34 and zero touchdowns. Over the next two quarters, he went 15/18, threw a perfect pass to Hunter Henry in the endzone, and bumped that up to a total rating of 86.6. Most importantly, he led his team to a win.
This argument isn’t to yada-yada past the turnovers, because being a butterfingers with the ball may be the only way to let a Denver Broncos team quarterbacked by Jarrett Stidham into the Super Bowl. If there’s any stat to obsess over in the playoffs, it’s the giveaways.
When questioned about Maye’s turnovers, though, coach Mike Vrabel opened up the scope of investigation beyond the quarterback:
“A lot of it is operation. I mean, we had two turnovers where we all weren't on the same page. And not only is it – you could have a negative play if you don't have everybody on the same page, but even worse, you lose the football. Or if you don't have somebody on the same page and they blitz, somebody gets hurt. So, those are the things we talk about when we're not on the same page.”
When the quarterback’s sack rate jumps from 8.72% in the regular season to 15.15% in the playoffs, it certainly looks more like an operational failure.
And while he may repeat a mistake once or twice, Maye doesn’t ever really look like he’s in his own head. On the contrary, just when you think he looks a little lost, or a little overwhelmed, he runs for a first down, or connects with a receiver like Boutte, or Stefon Diggs.
His second half performances also buck a trend the offense showed through much of the regular season. New England scored 10 points in the second half of their matchup with the Chargers, and the Patriots managed that fourth quarter, six-play scoring drive that ended with Boutte’s one-hand catch in the endzone against the Texans.
One touchdown may not seem like a big deal, but remember that the Patriots finished the regular season 27th in fourth quarter points with just 90.
Maye isn’t the statistical darling he was during the eight-game stretch in which he posted weekly passer ratings above 100. There still may be such a game on the horizon, though the Broncos’ pass rush is nothing to sneeze at, so don’t hold your breath.
But with the help of a healthy run game and stingy defense, he’s keeping his team out of the hole and executing when it counts.