If the Celtics win on Wednesday night at TD Garden over the Oklahoma City Thunder, they will clinch the best record in the NBA and home-court advantage through the NBA Finals.
That is the only box the Celtics have left to check this regular season.
As of March 25, the Eastern Conference has been decided, with the Celtics clinching the number-one seed for the first time since the 2016-17 season.
They are looked in as the number-one seed, having earned the luxury of resting players and trying new things. Their main challenge is finding the right balance between giving players some rest and keeping up the team’s momentum and chemistry, which they’ve been building all season long.
Due to the Play-In tournament, the Celtics won’t know their opponent until April 19, when the loser of the seven-eight-seed matchup will host the winner of the nine-ten-seed matchup. The winner will earn the eighth seed and a trip to Boston to face the Celtics in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
With the NBA season nearing its end on April 14, potential first-round opponents for the Celtics are starting to become clearer. However, as we know, things can change rapidly in the NBA.
According to the Pro Basketball Reference Playoff Probabilities Report, as of April 2, Boston’s most likely first-round opponents are the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks. There’s also an outside chance of facing the Indiana Pacers, which appears unlikely. Yet, with about half a dozen games remaining in the season, there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
As the calendar flips to April and fans gear up for what promises to be a long postseason run for the Celtics, let’s examine the four most likely first-round opponents and who the Celtics should want to see.
#1: Chicago Bulls
This would unquestionably be the most favorable matchup for the Celtics. Chicago is as mediocre as it gets, ranking 19th in both offensive and defensive ratings.
Boston is a perfect 3-0 against the Bulls this season, with a point differential of +55, checking out for an average of 18.3 points per game.
In their three games against Chicago this season, the Celtics averaged 125.7 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 45.1% from deep. Though a small sample size, each of those numbers would rank at the top of the league in their respective categories.
Not only does Chicago not have an answer to Boston’s offense, but it also struggles on the perimeter. The Bulls make just 11.6 threes per game (26th), compared to Boston’s 16.6 (1st). In their three games this season, the Celtics outscored Chacgo 195-84 (+110) on the perimeter.
While Chicago has some talent with DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and Alex Caruso, it hasn’t worked. If the matchup materializes, anything less than a sweep or gentleman’s sweep by the Celtics would be a surprise.
#2: Miami Heat
That’s right, those Miami Heat – the very team that has sent Boston home in two of the last four Eastern Conference Finals.
To borrow a line from Ime Udoka: “We’re a basketball team, we’re not a track team. We’re not running from people.”
If the Celtics are concerned about their first-round opponent, then bigger issues are at hand. This team is poised for greatness, on track for 64 wins, a feat achieved by only 25 teams in the history of the NBA’s 82-game seasons. Additionally, their 11.4-point margin of victory per game ranks fifth all-time in NBA history.
Boston should embrace any chance to excise past playoff demons and show why things really are “#DifferentHere.” What better opportunity to get over that hurdle and set the tone from the start in round one?
This scenario could mirror the Brooklyn Nets in ’22. Like that Brooklyn team, led by two future Hall of Famers, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, which wasn’t your typical seven-seed, a battle-tested Miami Heat squad — who reached the NBA Finals as an eight-seed last year — wouldn’t be a typical eight seed.
Although the Celtics swept the season series, aside from a 33-point blowout win in late January, Miami has played Boston tough. While Miami would make things difficult for the Celtics, it would raise their vigilance right away.
Simply put, if the Celtics aren’t running from anybody – and it feels like Miami should be the only team – they aren’t ready for a title.
#3: Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers are about to get a big (literally) boost as the NBA’s reigning MVP, Joel Embiid, who has been sidelined since January 30 with a meniscus injury requiring surgery, is anticipated to make his return to the lineup before the conclusion of the regular season.
The 76ers haven’t been the same team without Embiid. When the big man went down in late January, Philly was the fourth-seed in the Eastern Conference, just a game behind the Cavs for the third-seed. Since then, they are 11-18 and are now the eighth-seed.
With Embiid sidelined, the 76ers have posted a 112.0 (22nd) offensive rating and 116.9 (24th) defensive rating. They are 21st in wins over that stretch and have been outscored by 127 points.
Making a return this late in the season, Embiid will need time to get his legs and conditioning under him, and unfortunately for the 76ers, time is not on their side. While the seven-time All-Star will undoubtedly swing a game, can he swing a series when he’s likely not to be at 100%? That seems rather unlikely.
Like Miami, Philly wouldn’t be your typical eight seed, but the Celtics still have a clear advantage, especially with an assumingly hobbled Embiid.
#4: Atlanta Hawks
Maybe this is a recency bias, but after Atlanta completed a 30-point comeback victory and took down the Celtics’ healthy starting five lineup behind a Dejounte Murray game-winner in overtime all in the same week, it appears the Hawks would provide the most resistance to the Celtics in a series. After all, they are only team out of the four to beat Boston twice this season.
But let’s be clear: What we saw from Atlanta in both games isn’t sustainable.
Atlanta’s physical defense bothered Boston a bit last week, but that was really the only time their defense has shown any signs of life. The Hawks surrender 120.3 points per game (27th), and opponents shoot 49.5% from the field (fourth-best) and 38.1% from deep (third-best). Although their offense can score in bunches, nothing about the Hawks is necessarily concerning.
One thing the Hawks do well is grab offensive rebounds. Atlanta is second in the league in offensive rebounds, averaging 12.7 per game. Finding extra possessions is one way to stay competitive as an inferior team, and the Hawks can do that on the offensive glass.
While the Hawks’ high-powered offense could steal a game, they aren’t a threat to Boston.
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