Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy generally isn’t one to chase certain matchups, even with home-ice advantage and the last change that comes with it.
But how about avoiding certain matchups? That’s something he will do at times, and it’s something he should do with the Bruins’ second-round series against the Islanders shifting back to Boston for Game 5.
Among the Bruins’ priorities for Monday night as they look to take a 3-2 series lead: Get Patrice Bergeron's line away from New York’s third line centered by Jean-Gabriel Pageau.
The difference between what Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have been able to do against Pageau, Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac and what they’ve been able to do against the rest of the Islanders has been stark.
Pageau and his linemates, usually with the Islanders’ top defense pair of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock out with them, have come about as close to shutting down the Bruins’ top line as anyone can.
In 22:58 of five-on-five action with the Bergeron line on the ice against Pageau in this series, shot attempts have been 24-17 in favor of the Bruins, scoring chances 13-12, and goals 1-0. But shots on goal have been 10-8 in favor of the Islanders and, most damningly, high-danger chances have gone 6-2 for New York.
In the 28:09 that the Bergeron line has played with Pageau off the ice, shot attempts have been 40-22 Bruins, scoring chances 27-14, and goals 2-0 (Pastrnak also scored another goal with Taylor Hall and David Krejci on the ice in Game 1). Shots on goal go from 10-8 Islanders to 27-10 Bruins, and high-danger chances go from 6-2 New York to 7-3 Boston.
Furthermore, Bergeron, the best faceoff man in the league in the regular season, is just 14-of-37 (37.8%) against Pageau at the dot this series. He is 23-of-44 (52.3%) against everyone else.
That is all the numerical way of saying this: When the Bergeron line faces anyone other than Pageau in this series, they dominate. When they face Pageau, they’re basically played to a standstill.
Whether that should be the case is worthy of debate. There's certainly an argument to be made that Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak should be able to do better against Pageau -- that they're too talented to get shut down by anyone. But you also have to acknowledge reality, and the reality is that right now they're struggling with that matchup.
Both coaches know it -- and really, they probably suspected it might be the case going in, because Pageau has had success as a Bergeron counterweight in the past. While Cassidy didn’t totally go out of his way to avoid that matchup in Games 1 and 2 with the Bruins getting last change, he did mostly stay away from it, with the Bergeron line and Pageau matched up for a total of just 4:59 at five-on-five in those two games. In Games 3 and 4, with the Islanders getting last change, Islanders coach Barry Trotz sought that matchup as much as possible and that number jumped to a total of 17:58.
With Game 5 back in Boston, Cassidy will want to take advantage of last change and make sure those matchup ice times are more in line with Games 1 and 2. If Trotz still wants to chase it, force him to do so with on-the-fly changes that could leave the Islanders exposed to quick counters.
With just three goals in the last two games, the Bruins need offense anywhere they can find it. A good place to start would be getting their best offensive players more favorable matchups.
All matchup stats from Natural Stat Trick. Faceoff stats from NHL.com.
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